If you think you know who wins Sunday's Bears-Packers game, think again

Celebrating the NFL's 100th season, the Bears and Packers will meet for the 200th time Sunday at Lambeau Field in the league's oldest and best rivalry.

It's a must-win for the Bears, who will be eliminated from playoff contention if they lose Sunday and the Vikings beat the Chargers in Los Angeles.

The game is less important for the Packers, who are a near lock to make the playoffs and can sew up the NFC North with win a win over the Vikings next Sunday in Minneapolis. But a loss to the Bears would put a severe crimp in hopes for an opening-round bye.

What can be gleaned from the opening night of the season when the Bears dropped a 10-3 heartbreaker to the Packers at Soldier Field?

Virtually nothing.

The significantly changed teams both had defensive performances that evening they have failed to come close to matching since.

While the Bears defense remains top five or 10 in almost every significant category, most importantly fourth in points allowed, Green Bay is in the bottom half of the league in almost all of those categories - with the exception of being 13th in points allowed.

The Bears will field one of the NFL's worst offenses, although it has been much more dangerous recently.

The Packers offense is average overall but claims three of the league's most dangerous weapons this season in Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams.

As Matt Nagy said Friday: "For instance, last year, for the first time we were playing them, the very first night. He (defensive coordinator Mike Pettine) has no idea what we're going to do as an offense and we don't necessarily know 100 percent what he's doing.

"Even this year, they have new players on defense," Nagy said. "So some of their scheme has changed. They get new players, they see things, they change, just like we do. It's a cat-and-mouse game."

The Packers have had an uncanny run of good luck with injuries this year, much like last year's Bears.

But Mike Davis, the Bears Week 1 starting running back, has been cut; Nos. 1 and 2 tight ends, Adam Shaheen and Trey Burton, are on injured reserve; and Ben Braunecker, Taylor Gabriel, Bobby Massie and Danny Trevathan will all be out Sunday.

With at least five new starters, over 20% of the Bears lineup that has turned over.

And there's a new element of intrigue that few expected.

The playing surface at Lambeau Field, long the gold standard in the NFL, has devolved this season into one of the league's worst, with both the Packers and their opponents having significant issues in recent games.

I asked Nagy which positions it could impact the most.

"There's not one that it doesn't. It affects every position.

"I mean, we've looked at the tape, there's guys in previous games on that field where there's long snappers that are slipping, but obviously the skill positions, the guys that are breaking and cutting, running deep - DBs, wide receivers - is probably where you see it the most," Nagy said.

"Sometimes, you can see it with edge rushers as they go to cut the corner, you can see some slipping and falling."

We would expect Green Bay's Smith "brothers," Za'Darius and Preston, and the Bears' Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd to be among the biggest difference-makers Sunday.

Can they still be?

Under normal circumstances, figuring this out is difficult.

The Bears are the slightly more talented team and they've played better football than the Packers over the last four or five weeks.

But - no slap at Mitch Trubisky - Aaron Rodgers will clearly be the most dangerous man on the field, and he's led other inferior Packers teams to wins over the Bears more often than many can count.

And, oh yeah, they're predicting a wind chill near zero Sunday.

I have no idea what's going to happen, but the possibilities are endless.

• @Hub_Arkush is the executive editor of Pro Football Weekly.