Rozner: Picking a Masters favorite? Good luck this year

So it has finally happened.

Heading into a major championship, Tiger Woods will have an opportunity to face the best players in the world, a full complement of stars from around the globe that are playing the game because of Tiger Woods.

He will stare down the Tiger Wave, not as the Woods of 10 or 20 years ago, the one who would have cleaned their clocks, but as a player still good enough to win the Tour Championship in Atlanta last year and threaten the leaderboard at The Open and PGA.

The Big Cat is not in perfect form, but he did shoot a 65 at Augusta last week in preparation for the Masters, and he could absolutely be a factor.

Course history matters more at Augusta than on any other track in the world. Combining that with recent form - and major championship pedigree - usually gives you the four or five players who stick out above the rest.

That is not necessarily the case this year.

There is little doubt that Rory McIlroy has struck the ball better than any other player in 2019. At times, he's been quite dominant. At other times, however, he has gone to pieces on Sunday and left you wondering how it could happen.

He won The Players Championship from the penultimate group, his first victory in 364 days. But the last nine times he's played in the final group on Sunday, he's failed to close the deal.

Nine times.

One of those was against Patrick Reed in the Masters a year ago, when McIlroy entered the final round 3 shots back and could have made up all 3 shots in 2 holes, but missed a 4-footer for eagle on the par-5 second and disappeared.

McIlroy wound up shooting 74 and finished 6 shots behind the winner.

Another was alongside Woods in Atlanta last September, when McIlroy couldn't handle the galleries or the magnitude of the event.

He shriveled.

McIlroy also collapsed in Woods' shadow at Match Play two weeks ago, when he had wedge into a par-5 and shanked it so bad he never finished the hole, Woods putting him away for good on the next hole.

Stunning, really, that someone so talented has choked so much in the last year.

So while McIlroy's form makes him the clear favorite, and he should win this tournament - becoming the sixth man ever to complete the career Grand Slam - you have to consider his inability to finish the last 12 months a serious question.

Meanwhile, Woods is still the greatest iron player who ever lived, crucial on a second-shot course with ferocious greens and brutal pin placements, but he's not nearly the scrambler he used to be and that's costing him the chance to crush the par-5s, where he's giving up shots to the field.

If he gets the par-5s this week, Woods is dangerous.

Dustin Johnson should terrify everyone, but there's been times this year when he couldn't putt to save his life.

Brooks Koepka lost 22 pounds and hasn't won since October, but he's the best pressure player in the game.

Rickie Fowler is so good it's absurd he hasn't won a major yet, but he has trouble on Sundays when ahead in weekly events.

He's daring when coming from behind in the final round, which might offer him his best opportunity, minus the pressure.

Two guys probably not getting enough consideration are Jon Rahm, who finished fourth last year and is looking for his first major, and Francesco Molinari, who won the Open Championship in 2018 and has continued his very fine play.

Molinari doesn't have a Top 10 at Augusta, but that's the only reason you wouldn't point directly to him as a major champion with the best form and the right demeanor.

However, the last reigning Open champ to follow it up with a Masters victory was, naturally, Woods in 2001.

Major champion Justin Rose has all the tools and should be in the conversation, but he's more a pick-up-the-pieces type.

So this is where we are as the Masters arrives, McIlroy the clear choice - and betting favorite (7-1) - but with serious questions about how he plays in the final group.

Last year, he was only the fifth choice at 13-1, but he was my pick for a number of reasons, including his mindset, and yet he gagged mightily on Sunday.

Now, he's talking so much about his mindset that you wonder if he believes what he's saying and if he's really trying to convince himself more than anyone else.

The rest of the Top 10 players all have flaws in their games or don't have great history at Augusta, and that makes it feel like more of the field could come into play, perhaps a Paul Casey, Tony Finau, Gary Woodland or Kevin Kisner.

Bryson DeChambeau, Tommy Fleetwood and Xander Schauffele will win majors. It's only a matter of time, but this doesn't feel like the time.

That leads us to the only certainty in this field, that the man with 14 majors and four green jackets thinks he can win right now.

That should throw a proper scare into everyone.