Signs point to Chicago Bears win, but no guarantees

Point spreads are a very dangerous animal and most often misunderstood.

Folks see the Chicago Bears are a 10-point favorite Sunday over the Buffalo Bills and immediately many assume the "experts" think the Bears are a far superior team and Buffalo has no chance.

In reality, the point spread has very little to do with how much better one team is than another.

The "spread" is designed strictly for the purpose of getting half the money wagered on the game on each team, thereby guaranteeing the house will always win.

When you consider the actual football acumen of everyone making bets, let's just say you can see some very funny point spreads.

Do I think the Bears are a far superior club that should blow these guys out in their own house and that Buffalo has no chance at the upset?

Let's just say I ain't betting on anything.

Much of the Bears love in Vegas this week is based on Nathan Peterman again inheriting the starting Bills quarterback job with Josh Allen and Derek Anderson unable to go.

I really liked Peterman coming out of Pitt, and he might still be a good quarterback some day, but the only current evidence we have of his NFL abilities are his 4 interceptions in 32 attempts this season, 9 picks on 81 career attempts, and a career 31.4 passer rating.

Not winning in the NFL when giving the ball away every nine times you drop to pass is almost as certain as death and taxes.

Part of Peterman's (and the Bills') passing woes is one of the most nondescript groups of receivers in the NFL, led by Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, tight end Charles Clay and the newly acquired Terrelle Pryor.

Huge edge to the Bears' secondary.

Buffalo's offensive line is an even bigger problem for the Bills.

Did you know ex-Bears Jordan Mills and Vladimir Ducasse still are in the league? They'll start at right tackle and left guard, respectively, for the Bills, and will be joined by left tackle Dion Dawkins, center Russell Bodine and right guard John Miller.

In other words, Peterman could end up road kill if the Bears' pass rush finds the terror it was wreaking until three weeks ago.

The one guy the Bears should fear is, of course, LeSean "Shady" McCoy, but at 30 he is averaging just 13.4 touches and 60.7 yards a game.

So will the Bears 'D' pitch a shutout?

Maybe, but if this was that easy, riddle me this: How did the Bills go into Minneapolis and annihilate the Vikings 27-6 in Week 3 with McCoy in street clothes?

These Bills are capable of playing some great 'D,' and while taking care of the football on offense, they took it way from the Vikes three times, turning those extra possessions into 10 points.

Sleep on these guys, like the Bears did on the Miami Dolphins, and the visitors will find trouble here.

The Bills have one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL. They can play some great defense, and Kyle Williams (age 35, 3½ sacks), Jerry Hughes (30, 4½ sacks) and Lorenzo Alexander (35, 4½ sacks) are three of the most underrated old guys in the league.

This will be a very tricky week for the Bears to be retooling the interior of their offensive line because of the Kyle Long injury.

As awful as the Bills are on offense - 31st in total offense, 32nd in points scored - they are sixth in total defense, sixth against the pass and 15th against the run, although just 19th in points allowed.

Buffalo's secondary is solid with Tre'Davious White and Phillip Gaines on the corners and Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer at safety.

Their best player on defense has been their first-round pick this year, middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, whom the Bears passed on to take Roquan Smith. But Edmunds is in the concussion protocol and his status for Sunday is uncertain.

This is a game the Bears should win, but by no means a walk in the park.

The Bears' offense will have to be firing on all cylinders to get the job done, unless the 'D' chips in some points, which can happen with Peterman under center.

• Hub Arkush, the executive editor of Pro Football Weekly, can be reached at harkush@profootballweekly.com or on Twitter @Hub_Arkush.