Rozner: Baseball analytics great, but don't exist in vacuum
Joe Maddon began his campaign in spring training, perhaps because of launch angle as much as anything else.
But his desire to get his players thinking more about baseball than analytics has been consistent all season.
"I think in our game today, the way it's run on a lot of levels, it's more about math than people sometimes," Maddon said in February. "I want our guys to understand that we understand the heartbeat around here, so don't forget the heartbeat.
"We're going to do all the other necessary work. We're going to do all the math work. We're going to do all the physical work.
"But at the end of the day … you compete. You try to beat that guy in the other uniform. Don't forget that."
Maddon has railed against launch angle and the home-run-only approach this year, asking his players to use the entire field and keep the line moving. Maddon must have loved this tweet a few days ago from the father of sabermetrics, Bill James:
"To a certain extent, the modern game has fallen victim to the OPS delusion, the belief that one point of slugging percentage is equal to one point of on-base percentage. It isn't. A good sequential offense is much stronger than a let's-all-hit-homers offense."
And as of late, 13-year veteran Jon Lester has added his voice to those who are tired of being judged entirely by analytics.
The 34-year-old Lester first attacked statistical analysis after a particularly bad outing a few weeks ago, when he was hammered by the Cards. His peripherals suggested that kind of performance might be on the horizon even though Lester was having a great year by old-school statistics.
"All this other nonsense is something for people to talk about," Lester said, pushing back hard. "Everybody wants answers for why guys are pitching well or not pitching well.
"I guess I'm old school when it comes down to … watch the game.
"At Wrigley where you fall behind a guy with the wind blowing in, am I worried about throwing a ball right down the middle? No.
"I don't care what the exit velocity is. I don't care how far it's supposed to go. Is it an out? Yes. So what does it matter?
"I think there's people that have nothing better to do than overanalyze things. I'm a big believer in sit back and enjoy the baseball game.
"I've given up my fair share of bloop singles and bloop doubles. It doesn't matter what the exit velocity is. It goes down as a single or a double."
And when Lester bounced back with a strong outing, the crafty left-hander doubled down.
"I think a perfect example is today," said Lester, referring to a flyball off the bat of Arizona's A.J. Pollock that was carried out by the wind. "Forty-two degrees (launch angle) on a home run is supposedly not a home run.
"Baseball's baseball. It's been played for however long, 120 years or whatever, and it's always going to be the same. You rely on your defense as a pitcher, and somehow we get punished for that."
Greg Maddux, in particular, always said he didn't want to strike anyone out. That took too many pitches and he wanted to go 9 innings, but that game doesn't exist anymore.
It's all about max effort early now and hope to get through 5 innings.
"Obviously, strikeouts are great," Lester said. "But at the end of the day, it's about winning the baseball game. And if you're winning the baseball game, that's all that matters.
"I think when guys pitch well, there needs to be a justification for it."
The truth, and this is rather unpopular these days, is that both the old school and new school are necessary, and that's what Maddon has tried to get at this year.
It's something, by the way, that Theo Epstein - one of baseball's very best analytical minds - speaks of frequently. He believes in heart and chemistry and momentum and being a good teammate.
The reality is it's not analytics alone that the old-school types dislike so much. They dislike very much the arrogant, unblinking, analytic zealots who don't watch games and believe the only answer resides in the black-and-white world of a spread sheet.
Anyone who dismisses half the equation is foolish. It should all be part of the conversation, but as a society we don't have conversations anymore. You have your position and the person sitting across from you believes the opposite.
Period. There is no discussion.
Lester is tired of the groupthink and this will make the metrics people crazy, insisting there can only be one answer to a question.
It's absurd, of course, as any rational person would tell you.
Analytics have been great for the game, furthering our knowledge and at times helping us understand events that we previously didn't.
But the game is played by humans - and Joe Maddon will tell you that it can't be played well without some heart.
brozner@dailyherald.com
• Listen to Barry Rozner from 9 a.m. to noon Sundays on the Score's "Hit and Run" show at WSCR 670-AM and follow him @BarryRozner on Twitter.