Rozner: Tiger Woods already surpassing expectations

When it comes to forecasting Tiger Woods in 2018, there is precious little perspective.

It seems that those who dislike him will find every imaginable reason to downplay any positive result.

And those who hope he will one day again play like the greatest of all time will find every imaginable reason to suggest it is about to happen.

The reality is this comeback has already been much more than anyone should have hoped for, something Woods himself admits is the case.

"There's no way I would have predicted I would be at this point at the beginning of the year, the way I was just coming back and just trying to get a feel for it and then hopefully have a schedule," Woods said after going 65-69 on the weekend at The Players Championship. "I didn't know.

"But now I feel like I've got my playing feels and I'm playing tournament golf and I've got it. I'm not that far off from winning golf tournaments."

Woods was impressive at TPC Sawgrass three weeks ago with 14 birdies on the weekend, getting to within 4 shots of the lead on Saturday after being 11 shots back to start the day. After 6 birdies through 12 holes Sunday, he was in a tie for second.

But there has been a "however" associated with the runs he's made this year.

There was the iron off the tee on 18 at Valspar - where he finished second - because there was no confidence in the driver, and the driver on the par-5 16th at the Palmer - where he finished fifth - when he hit it out of bounds left.

Those were missed opportunities.

After his run on Sunday at TPC, Woods bogeyed the 14th from only 90 yards out, made par at the must-birdie, par-5 16th - the second-easiest hole all week - and the tee ball in the water on the island green.

It was still a 3-under 69, good for 11th place, and he wasn't going to catch Webb Simpson anyway. But it was characteristic of what you would expect from someone who hasn't played golf, essentially, for four years.

A step back from it is required to get a realistic look.

There were the four back surgeries and spinal fusion 13 months ago. He has changed his swing again, changed irons a few weeks ago, changed his driver shaft and is playing a different ball.

Any one of those things could set a player back a year or two, if that player had been playing competitive golf the last four years.

The fact that he's playing and playing this well is remarkable enough, but he still has a lot of work to do.

It makes sense.

In order to win golf tournaments, you pretty much have to have all facets of the game working, and from week to week Woods is working on a different part of his game.

Every time you focus a significant amount of time on one part, another part suffers.

Generally, Woods' biggest problem this year has been hitting fairways. He's 24th in driving distance, but 200th in driving accuracy (52 percent). In approaches from 150 to 175 yards, he's 178th.

The greatest iron player ever is not dialed in yet. Not even close.

At the same time, he's seventh on Tour in strokes gained around the green, a sure sign that he can once again make up for poor driving and iron play with brilliance in the short game.

He's 13th in scoring average and 10th in strokes gained overall, while his Official World Golf Ranking has dropped from No. 674 to start the year to No. 83.

Golf is above all else a game of feel, and Woods is clearly starting to feel it again. With each passing tournament, he is shaking off the rust and starting to get an idea of what new clubs and a new ball will do with a new swing.

And at TPC, it really seemed like he was getting closer to putting it all together.

The guess here before the season was that he would need at least a year of playing regularly to have any idea what he was doing out on the PGA Tour, but there are signals that he can move up that timeline, not the least of which is a pair of top 5s and four finishes top 12 or better in only eight starts.

That's pretty ridiculous given the circumstances. Seriously, did you think he could even physically survive eight tournaments this season?

This week, Woods heads to the Memorial at Muirfield Village, where he's won five times and should be a threat again, and is pointing toward the U.S. Open at Shinnecock in two weeks, where playing out of the rough will not be an option.

If you're looking for the best chance at a major this year, think Carnoustie and the Open Championship, where he can hit long irons off the tee all week, as he did at the 2006 Open at Royal Liverpool, when Woods hit one driver in four rounds of major championship golf and shot 18-under to win by 2.

This conversation, admittedly, seemed absurd four months ago, but it seems less so now that he is starting to figure it out and has eight more weeks to find his game before the Open.

This was hard to imagine in January. It is becoming easier every week now.

brozner@dailyherald.com

• Listen to Barry Rozner from 9 a.m. to noon Sundays on the Score's "Hit and Run" show at WSCR 670-AM and follow him @BarryRozner on Twitter.