Duke now favorite to win NCAA title; Loyola nearly 1-in-5 to reach Final Four

What a weekend. The top seed in the tournament, No. 1 Virginia, became the first No. 1 seed to ever get knocked off by a No. 16 seed (UMBC). The other top seeds in the South region, No. 2 Cincinnati, No. 3 Tennessee and No. 4 Arizona, also lost. No. 1 Xavier lost in the round of 32 on Sunday night, as did No. 3 Michigan State in the Midwest region.

Cinderella also made her mark, as No. 11 Loyola advanced, along with another double-digit seed in No. 11 Syracuse. Both are in the Sweet 16 with chances of 19 and 4 percent, respectively, to make the Final Four. The Orange can see their Final Four chances increase greatly if they can get by No. 2 Duke, the current title favorite with a 27-percent likelihood, in the Sweet 16.

So, who's favored to move on to the Final Four? Heading into Thursday's Sweet 16 games the top four contenders are Duke (62 percent), Villanova (50 percent), Gonzaga (46 percent), Kentucky (38 percent).

As March Madness unfolds, we're providing updated win probabilities for every team in the tournament.

Sunday results

No. 5 West Virginia beats No. 13 Marshall

Elite Eight: 26% |Final Four: 10% |Finals: 3% |Title: 1%

The Mountaineers went on a 19-0 run in the first half giving West Virginia a 97 percent win probability, which they maxed out at 100 percent, naturally, by the game's end. They will face No. 1 Villanova in the Sweet 16, an opponent that lowers their chance to make the Final Four from 11 to 10 percent.

No. 9 Florida State upsets No. 1 Xavier

Elite Eight: 24% |Final Four: 8% |Finals: 2% |Title: 1%

The Seminoles outscored Xavier 31-14 down the stretch with PJ Savoy hitting a three-point shot with a little over a minute to play to give Florida State its first lead of the second half. After the win, Florida State's chances to make the Elite Eight ballooned from 9 to 24 percent. The Seminoles will face No. 4 Gonzaga in the next round.

No. 9 Kansas State beats No. 16 UMBC

Elite Eight: 34% |Final Four: 14% |Finals: 5% |Title: 1%

Barry Brown led Kansas State with 18 points - eight as the ballhandler during the pick-and-roll - and helped end UMBC's reign as the ultimate bracket buster. With none of the top four seeds remaining in the South, their Final Four chances move up from 1 to 14 percent. They will face No. 5 Kentucky Thursday.

No. 5 Clemson upsets No. 4 Auburn

Elite Eight: 40% |Final Four: 11% |Finals: 4% |Title: 1%

Auburn shot just 26 percent from the field and 22 percent from three-point range, making it easy for No. 5 Clemson to move on to the Sweet 16, where they will face No. 1 Kansas. Still, the Tigers' Final Four chances rise from 7 to 11 percent.

No. 7 Nevada upsets No. 2 Cincinnati

Elite Eight: 59% |Final Four: 29% |Finals: 13% |Title: 4%

The Bearcats looked like they had this one in the bag but then Nevada went on a 14-0 run, followed by a 7-0 run late in the game to punch its ticket to the Sweet 16 in stunning fashion. There they will meet No. 11 Loyola Chicago.

No. 7 Texas A&M upsets No. 2 North Carolina

Elite Eight: 31% |Final Four: 10% |Finals: 3% |Title: 1%

The Tar Heels were outworked from the beginning and hit just 6 of their 31 three-point attempts (19 percent), leading to an Aggies victory. Texas A&M will now face No. 3 Michigan in the Sweet 16.

No. 11 Syracuse upsets No. 3 Michigan State

Elite Eight: 13% |Final Four: 4% |Finals: 1% |Title: 0%

Coach Jim Boeheim runs the zone defense more than any other college team (94 percent of the time) and on Sunday it proved to be too much for the Spartans to handle despite Michigan State beating Syracuse on the offensive boards 29 to 7.

Syracuse's Elite Eight chances rise slightly after the win from 9 to 13 percent, and the Orange will face No. 2 Duke in the Sweet 16.

No. 2 Purdue beats No. 10 Butler

Elite Eight: 65% |Final Four: 29% |Finals: 14% |Title: 8%

The Boilermakers needed every minute to end Butler's Cinderella bid. Vince Edwards was solid in the low post, scoring two points and drawing two fouls on four possessions plus seven points on three possessions in isolation. Purdue's chances to make the Elite Eight rise from 58 to 64 percent.

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Saturday results

No. 3 Michigan beats No. 6 Houston

Elite Eight: 68% |Final Four: 35% |Finals: 18% |Title: 8%

Freshman Jordan Poole hit a last-second three-point shot to send the Wolverines into the Sweet 16, giving them a 50-50 chance at the Elite Eight (it was 38 percent before the game), pending the outcome of No. 2 North Carolina and No. 7 Texas A&M.

No. 4 Gonzaga beats No. 5 Ohio State

Elite Eight: 75% |Final Four: 46% |Finals: 26% |Title: 13%

Gonzaga got out to a quick 15-0 lead while hitting 6 of 9 shots and saw Zach Norvell Jr., a red shirt freshman, score 28 points - six three-point shots - and grab 12 rebounds.

No. 3 Texas Tech beats No. 6 Florida

Elite Eight: 35% |Final Four: 13% |Finals: 4% |Title: 2%

Texas Tech makes the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005, when Coach Chris Beard was an assistant to the legendary Bobby Knight. Florida, meanwhile, falls short of the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2010. They will face No. 2 Purdue in the Sweet 16.

No. 1 Kansas beats No. 8 Seton Hall

Elite Eight: 59% |Final Four: 21% |Finals: 10% |Title: 5%

Kansas won, but Seton Hall's Angel Delgado had a big night, scoring 24 points with 23 rebounds, making him only the fifth player in 40 years to have more than 20 points and rebounds in an NCAA tournament game, joining North Carolina's Tyler Zeller (2012), Wake Forest's Tim Duncan (1997), Maryland's Joe Smith (1995) and Houston's Hakeem Olajuwon (1983).

No. 11 Loyola Chicago upsets No. 3 Tennessee

Elite Eight: 40% |Final Four: 19% |Finals: 7% |Title: 1%

Sister Jean, the team chaplain for Loyola Chicago, called this upset and the Ramblers did not disappoint. Aundre Jackson had 16 points, four rebounds and an assist to help Loyola Chicago reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1985. Their chances to make the Elite Eight rise from 8 to 29 percent pending the outcome of No. 2 Cincinnati and No. 7 Nevada on Sunday.

No. 5 Kentucky beats No. 13 Buffalo

Elite Eight: 66% |Final Four: 38% |Finals: 20% |Title: 7%

Coach John Calipari saw a true team effort on Saturday with four players - PJ Washington, Hamidou Diallo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Wenyen Gabriel - reaching double figures in getting the Wildcats to the Sweet 16. And now that UMBC knocked off Virginia, Kentucky's chances to make the Final Four gets a little better, going from six to 32 percent.

No. 2 Duke beats No. 7 Rhode Island

Elite Eight: 86% |Final Four:62% |Finals: 40% |Title: 27%

Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year Marvin Bagley III scored a team-high 22 points with nine rebounds and fellow freshman Wendell Carter Jr. added 13 points to help earn Duke its 26th trip to the Sweet 16. More importantly, after No. 7 Texas A&M upset No. 2 North Carolina, the Blue Devils' championship hopes soar.

No. 1 Villanova beats No. 9 Alabama

Elite Eight: 77% |Final Four: 50% |Finals: 29% |Title: 20%

Villanova hit 17 three-point shots en route to an easy 81-58 victory over Alabama, increasing the Wildcats' chances of making the Elite Eight.