The homicide epidemic in Chicago during the COVID-19 pandemic
The number of murders in Chicago increased an unprecedented 55% from 2019 (495) to 2020 (769). Previous years with a comparable number of homicides in Chicago were 1996 (796) and 2016 (762). In 2020, no other US cities had an increase in homicides of that proportion - in New York City and Los Angeles, homicides rose 40% and 33%, respectively, but the combined number was significantly lower than in Chicago.
The pandemic likely fueled murders in already fraught communities. The economy spiraled downward due to lockdowns. Higher unemployment rates are generally correlated with higher rates of violent crime, causing greater desperation, uncertainty and social disorder. Homicides in nearly all places and times have been fostered by economic inequalities, which have persisted along racial lines throughout Chicago's history.
During the pandemic, Chicago residents with lower educational levels and lower paying jobs were often required to work outside the home, increasing their susceptibility to COVID-19. These mostly Black residents were also more likely to lose their jobs and therefore suffered great financial hardship in 2020. The economic gap widened and could have contributed to the increase in homicides due to income inequality, oppressive economic hardship and diminished structure in young men's lives.
Chicago's African American population has consistently suffered the brunt of the city's homicides. In response to violence, Blacks have been fleeing the city. With lower numbers of residents, Black majority communities are becoming isolated pockets of even more deeply entrenched poverty, hopelessness and despair. In 2020, social media provided a convenient vehicle to exchange threats and recriminations and to track would-be victims who were less mobile due to stay-at-home orders and social distancing directives.
The first year of the pandemic was also accompanied by racially motivated social unrest. The simmering tensions over the video-cammed fatal encounters between the police and African Americans boiled over with the grisly death of George Floyd, leading to nationwide protests over police abuses and the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement.
The recording of police interactions with citizens and persistent animosity between police officers and residents of color could have engendered a greater reluctance among law enforcement to implement the kinds of strategies necessary to maintain order and quell tensions in Black neighborhoods, where distrust has been running high since the 1960s. Under these conditions, residents withdraw and are less likely to call the police to resolve differences and solve crimes.
Minority and police relationships in Chicago are rife with distrust, which was fueled by the lingering aftermath of the Laquan McDonald shooting and police clashes with protesters during BLM protests. Beat meetings halted due to social distancing and cops no longer have been as visible patrolling neighborhood streets.
The dearth of social services, especially those for addiction and other mental health problems, compounded the misery from the disproportionate COVID-19 sickness and deaths in Black communities. Moreover, reduced funding and social distancing curtailed the city's violence prevention campaigns (e.g., Cure Violence), in which former gang members intervene to stop escalating tensions, which can lead to shootings and retaliatory shootings, sparking the familiar cycle of drive-by killings.
Historically, retaliatory shootings have been provoked by disputes over gang-controlled territory and drug selling markets. This past year, COVID-19 restrictions reduced opportunities for face-to-face territorial conflicts. In fact, drug arrests declined 20% from last year, suggesting that disputes over drug sales contributed little to the remarkable one-year jump in murder. Tensions are no longer attributable to conflicts over colors (gang reputations and loyalties) or territories (safe havens of control) or outdoor drug markets, which have dissipated during the pandemic.
Large gangs with defined membership hierarchies and control over large swaths of neighborhoods or housing developments are no longer prevalent in Chicago. Gang members are now grouped into nearly 800 factions and more than 2,500 subsets, resulting in smaller alliances and greater flashpoints for escalating conflicts.
In 2020, young men entrenched in the city's subculture of violence had less structure in their lives due to school restrictions and job loss, living in disorderly and unpredictable environments where violence is the primary means to resolve disputes and to gain self-esteem and standing in their gang sets. The number of guns in circulation has increased as a result of record purchases this past year. These guns can fall into the hands of young men through theft, trafficking, illegal purchases and social networks.
Chicago will likely maintain its distinction as the country's leader in homicides without fundamental improvements in its social and economic environments and enhanced educational and employment opportunities in the city's segregated Black communities.
• Arthur J. Lurigio, Ph.D., is a professor, researcher and senior associate dean for faculty at Loyola University Chicago.