Editorial: High nursing home stats don't cut risk to others

The question turns up on social media, in political arguments and in conversations among people genuinely wondering: With so many cases of COVID-19 occurring in nursing homes, is the general public truly at risk, requiring prolonged lockdowns and social-distancing rules?

Public health officials resoundingly say yes, and for good reason.

It's true that the highest rates of illness and death are among our communities' frail and elderly living in skilled-nursing facilities.

That doesn't mean others living outside such facilities are safe, and theories to that effect show a lack of understanding of how this coronavirus seems to work. That's especially the case this early in the game, when insufficient testing leaves many questions about COVID-19's prevalence and spread.

Deaths related to skilled-nursing facilities in Illinois rose to 625 Friday, from 286 in the previous weekly report. That's more than one-third of the Illinois deaths reported on that same day.

Among cases, 4,298 were related to nursing homes, 11% of the cases reported at that time.

It's a grave concern. Yet, it's a fallacy to think the high risk for people living in such locations means less risk for those lucky enough not to need such care.

For one thing, skilled-nursing facilities are not closed systems, set apart from the society that surrounds them. They might now restrict visitors, but many workers go in and out daily. So do paramedics, and residents frequently move to and from hospitals.

For another, Illinois' case counts include workers at skilled nursing facilities, not simply residents. Plagued by shortages of personal protective equipment, many employees do their jobs and then go home to families or roommates. If the virus is rampant at a nursing home, it's unlikely to stay isolated there for long.

And, obviously, if one-third of COVD-19 deaths are related to skilled-nursing homes, two-thirds are not. The dead have included people who are young and healthy, as well as those who are old and ill.

Say what you will about the timetable for reopening society ­- but don't let your views be colored by the nursing home argument.

Illinois has to figure out how and when to emerge from isolation, but people shouldn't think they're any safer because people in skilled nursing facilities are in greater peril. An outbreak anywhere in a community is a danger to the community as a whole.