Editorial: Not just a remote threat, climate change will affect us here

Third in a series

When we think of global warming, certain images come immediately to mind - melting glaciers, rising sea levels, loss of animal species, even more and stronger hurricanes. Events like these can seem distant not only in time but in location. As bad as it is, a loss of polar bears somewhere decades in the future may not feel like an immediate or direct crisis for people living in the heart of the American Midwest.

But we don't have to look so far afield to see specific effects of climate change. We will experience them - indeed, already are experiencing them - here in the Chicago region and the state of Illinois.

The Illinois state climatologist, Department of Natural Resources and EPA as well as the National Weather Service, NASA and many other agencies all have produced various pieces of the picture. Among the issues they foresee for the Midwest:

• Higher temperatures, naturally, but not just a matter of discomfort. Some studies predict heat-related deaths to increase by hundreds a year. Illinois' state climatologist notes, "Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected by the end of the 21st century."

• More precipitation in spring and winter. The National Climate Assessment cites high-emissions data showing precipitation could increase by as much as 10% to 20% in those seasons around the end of this century.

• More flooding. Most models predict heavier rainfall and snowfall events throughout the state by 2050, leading to deaths, property damage, transportation problems and disruption to one of Illinois' key industries, agriculture. The NCA notes that Midwest flooding in 2008 "caused 24 deaths, $15 billion in losses via reduced agricultural yields, and closure of key transportation routes."

• More drought. Ironically, while rains and snows will be heavier during parts of the year, longer periods of drought will occur at other times. Just such a scenario produced a serious problem this year for Illinois farmers, many of whom had to delay planting because of an unusually wet spring, only to see crop yields suffer later in the growing season because of lack of rain.

• The water conflict. Expect more immigration - and not just from foreign countries. As water supplies dwindle in many parts of the United States, industries and populations are expected to relocate nearer to the Great Lakes, agencies like Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning predict. This increased growth will create some new economic opportunities but also add to strains on already-stressed infrastructures. Beyond that, intense, possibly violent, competition could emerge for control of a critical global resource.

All of these direct changes will surely lead to further consequences. Experts predict transportation disruptions, habitat shifts of animal and plant species, threats to trees and plants, declining air quality and more.

In short, climate change isn't just a matter involving far-flung arctic regions or coastal areas whose experiences might lead us to deduce certain remote results. It is a reality we will see and feel directly in the environmental factors that determine the quality of life we have come to expect and cherish here.