Playoff analysis: Bulls hope midseason transition will pay off
One problem with trying to assess how the Bulls match up with the Boston Celtics in their first-round playoff series is the Bulls went through a significant transition during the course of the season.
Two of the four games between the Bulls and Celtics were played by Nov. 2, and three of four happened before the Bulls traded power forward Taj Gibson to Oklahoma City.
Despite those analysis obstacles, let's try to examine the most important factors in this first-round matchup, which begins Sunday at the TD Garden:
Boards vs. space:
Boston's glaring weakness is rebounding and the Bulls took full advantage during the regular season, doubling up the Celtics in offensive rebounds, and winning the second-chance points by an average of 16.3-8.5 per game.
But when the Bulls traded Gibson, they gave up a lot of their rebounding advantage and replaced it with a fairly successful 3-point attack.
So how will that play out in this series? Tough to tell, since the lone matchup after the trade on Mar. 12 featured the Bulls at their absolute worst. True, having Gibson would probably help in this series, but the Bulls also built confidence late in the year by pushing power forwards Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis away from the basket.
While the Bulls were still a decent rebounding team after the all-star break - 10th in the league at 10.7 offensive boards per game - they took a huge leap in outside accuracy.
Before the break, the Bulls ranked dead last in the league in both 3-point percentage (. 316) and 3-pointers made per game (6.4). Since the break, they moved all the way to sixth in 3-point percentage (.382) and 10th in makes (10.2).
In that Feb. 16 game at the United Center - the last time Gibson played for the Bulls - Boston knocked down 14 of 37 shots from 3-point range and outscored the Bulls by 24 points from behind the arc. Erasing their long-range deficit should be more than enough to offset any drop in the 22-4 advantage the Bulls had that night in second-chance points.
In theory, when the Bulls are knocking down 3s, it creates more space for Jimmy Butler and Rajon Rondo to get to the basket. The main 3-point difference-makers have been Mirotic and Portis, but it can be Denzel Valentine, Paul Zipser, Jerian Grant or Joffrey Lauvergne on the right night.
"That's kind of the dynamic of our team now. It's a completely different style of how we're playing now than what we were doing earlier in the year," coach Fred Hoiberg said. "We're not in as good of rebounding position. But it is opening up things for our playmakers to get into the paint and open up shots for everybody."
Fourth quarter frenzy:
Three of the four meetings between the Bulls and Celtics came down to the final two minutes, with the one blowout in March. So even with all the other factors, these games might still be decided by Jimmy Butler vs. Isaiah Thomas and who can make shots in crunchtime.
Thomas ranks second in the league in fourth-quarter scoring at 9.8 points per game, trailing only Russell Westbrook. Butler slid a little bit in the fourth-quarter rankings as teams double-teamed him more. He's tied for 14th at 6.2 points in the fourth, and Dwyane Wade isn't far behind with 5.7.
Boston's second-leading scorer in the fourth quarter is Avery Bradley at 3.9 points. So the pressure is on either Thomas to deliver or everyone else to step up if needed.
In the Feb. 16 game, Thomas scored 11 of the Celtics' 25 points in the fourth, while backup center Kelly Olynyk added 9. The mobile Olynyk often gives the Bulls trouble. He averaged 14 points against them this season, compared to 10 for Al Horford.
Experience might matter
As we've mentioned, the wild card for the Bulls is usually one of the young guys getting hot from the outside. In this series, another variable is the vast wealth of playoff experience for Wade (166 postseason games) and Rajon Rondo (94).
Most of the Celtics have been to the playoffs the past two years, but they didn't win a series, going 2-8 against Cleveland and Atlanta. Newcomer Al Horford brought 74 games of playoff experience with him from Atlanta.
It's possible Wade's late-season elbow injury will be just what the doctor ordered, if fresh legs can help produce more postseason magic. Just last season, Wade averaged 23.9 points for Miami in a second-round series against Toronto, which lasted seven games.
"This is the moment Dwyane lives for. It's playoff basketball," Hoiberg said. "It's great to have a guy who has championship experience like he has and be able to give him the ball and create something good.
And when Rondo is at his best, the Bulls have been pretty good this season. It's impossible to predict how he'll respond to a playoff series against his former team. But Rondo seemed rejuvenated by returning to the starting lineup on Mar. 13. Since that happened, he's averaged 8.0 assists and shot a surprising 49 percent from 3-point range.
Prediction: This series has the potential to provide plenty of drama. Celtics in 7.
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Bulls first round playoff schedule
Game 1: Bulls at Celtics, Sunday, 5:30 p.m., CSN/TNT
Game 2: Bulls at Celtics, Tuesday, 7 p.m., CSN / TNT
Game 3: Celtics at Bulls, Friday, 6 p.m., CSN / ESPN
Game 4: Celtics at Bulls, Sunday, April 23, 5:30 p.m.
*Game 5: Bulls at Celtics, Wednesday, April 26, TBD
*Game 6: Celtics at Bulls, Friday, April 28, TBD
*Game 7: Bulls at Celtics, Sunday, April 30, TBD
* If necessary