Can Cardinals block Cubs from taking NL Central again?
At first glance, the National League Central looks like it's the Chicago Cubs and everybody else.
At second glance, the NL Central looks like it's the Cubs and everybody else.
At third glance … you get the idea.
Beginning with the 2015 postseason, when the Cubs picked off the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals in the postseason, the balance of power shifted in the Central.
With the Cubs winning the World Series last year, the new order in the division looks like it's here to stay for a while.
Here's how it should shake out this season.
Chicago Cubs:
The defending champs have brought back essentially the same squad from 2016. Notable departures were center fielder Dexter Fowler, who signed with the Cardinals, closer Aroldis Chapman, who went back to the Yankees, and catcher David Ross, who retired.
The Cubs are young, talented and deep. The players didn't seem affected by their deep playoff runs in 2015 and last year, so there's no reason to believe they'll suffer a World Series hangover.
That doesn't mean things can't go wrong this year. New closer Wade Davis was not impressive in spring training, and setup men Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop struggled at the end of last year after suffering injuries. As it is, bullpens are a concern every year with every team.
The Cubs could push the 100-victory mark again this season, but a shaky bullpen or key injuries could change that and bring this team back to the Central pack.
St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals did not make the playoffs last season, but it's always foolhardy to dismiss them out of hand.
Fowler could put the same "go" into the Cards as he did with the Cubs.
Talk in the media lately is whether veteran catcher Yadier Molina will sign a contract extension. Molina, 34, has been a Cardinal since 2004, and he put up an impressive line of .307/.360/.787 last year.
The starting rotation looks solid, and the Cardinals are counting on a strong recovery by Lance Lynn, who underwent elbow surgery in 2015. Former closer Trevor Rosenthal still is in the St. Louis bullpen, but he has given way in the ninth inning to Seung Hwan Oh, who had 19 saves last year.
A wild-card spot seems a good bet for this team.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
That sound you heard in the fall of 2015 was the Pirates' window of opportunity slamming on their fingers. That happened when Jake Arrieta and the Cubs knocked the Pirates out of the playoffs in the wild-card game.
The Pirates fell off to 78-83 last year, and talk in the off-season was that the Pirates could trade Andrew McCutchen, the longtime face of the franchise. McCutchen remains a Pirate, for now. But if the Bucs fall far off the pace by midseason, he could be gone by the July 31 nonwaiver trading deadline.
Milwaukee Brewers:
The Brewers are well under way with their rebuilding process. The Cubs will visit Miller Park on their season-opening road trip.
Ryan Braun has four years and $76 million remaining on his contract, and he's still productive. Former Cub Matt Garza is listed as the Brewers' fifth starting pitcher. Garza has had a rough spring after a poor 2016 season. He is in the final year of an ill-conceived four-year, $50 million contract. Will somebody else take a chance on him after this season?
Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds could use a feel-good story, and they may just have one in pitcher Bronson Arroyo. The 40-year-old Arroyo has not pitched in the big leagues since 2014, when he went 7-4 with a 4.08 ERA with the Diamondbacks.
Arroyo pitched for the Reds from 2006-13, and he's trying to make a comeback from injuries as a nonroster invitee to spring training. Reports say if he finishes spring training healthy, he will crack the Reds' rotation.
First baseman Joey Votto led the league in on-base percentage (.434) last year. He also had an OPS-plus of 160.
Beyond that, it looks like another long year on the banks of the Ohio River. Cubs fans should find plenty of tickets available for the short road trip to Cincinnati.
• Twitter@BruceMiles2112