Dann Gire predicts Sunday's Oscar winners
Let's get right to the most confounding, hair-pulling, anybody's guess, head-scratching, anything-goes Oscar category of the year: Best Picture.
Nine times out of the last 10 years, the winner of the Producers Guild Award went on to snag the Best Picture Oscar.
That means Adam McKay's ambitious corporate comedy “The Big Short” will win!
But wait.
“Spotlight” - the true story of how Boston Globe reporters exposed the Catholic Church's cover-up of priests' sex crimes - is exactly the type of well-crafted, socially important drama that Oscar voters adore. Plus, it won the Screen Actors Guild Best Cast Award, a tip-off to the Best Picture. So, it will win!
But wait.
The movie with the most nominations usually nabs Best Picture. So, “The Revenant” with 12 noms will win!
Plus, “The Revenant” took Directors Guild honors for Alejandro González Iñárritu, suggesting he'll win the Best Director Oscar, further suggesting that “The Revenant” will take Best Picture!
But wait.
A lot of voters reportedly hate, hate, hate that violent movie. What if they like “Big Short” or “Spotlight” more?
Then, what if those two socially important movies cancel each other out and “The Revenant” triumphs anyway?
Arghhhhhhhhhhh!
It doesn't help that the Academy uses a preferential ballot that might bypass voters' first choice (if there's not a 50 percent-plus for a single title) and give the win to their second or even third choices.
OK.
Here's a fearless prediction: “The Big Short” is the one I want to win. “Spotlight” is the one that should win. “The Revenant” is the one that will win.
Not only is “Revenant” a piece of visual poetry, it's the only picture directed and cowritten by a nonwhite nominee, which certainly will factor in to this year's voting by an image-sensitive Academy.
Now, let's look at the rock-solid, can't-possibly-lose, absolutely for-sure winners of the 88th Academy Awards.
Brie Larson - Best Actress: As an abducted teen held captive in a “Room” for seven years, the luminous Larson creates a consummate conflicted heroine as exasperated by raising her 5-year-old son as she is dealing with the creep who abducted her as his sex slave.
Larson's transparent, seemingly effortless performance style has elevated every movie she's been in. “Room” is a case where she slathers the icing on a cake of excellence.
Leonard DiCaprio - Best Actor: Talk about suffering for your art.
To play 19th-century American explorer Hugh Glass in Iñárritu's violent, fact-based adventure “The Revenant,” DiCaprio withstood 40-below-zero weather, suffered bouts with the flu, climbed naked into a disemboweled horse carcass and ate a raw buffalo liver.
This may not be DiCaprio's most nuanced, bravest performance (he achieved that in “The Wolf of Wall Street”), but a DiCaprio win will prove the “eat a liver, win an Oscar” rule established by Anthony Hopkins' Hannibal Lecter in “The Silence of the Lambs,” but without the fava beans and a nice Chianti.
“The Revenant” - Best Cinematography: Cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki will win an unprecedented three consecutive Oscars Sunday night after earning the honor for 2014's “Birdman” and 2013's “Gravity.” Using low-to-the-ground, wide-angle lenses, he creates a WOW! visual experience unparalleled by other nominees.
“Inside Out” - Best Animated Feature: One of Pixar's most imaginative, cerebral and engaging movies. When this movie wins, expect sheer Joy at the podium.
“Son of Saul” - Best Foreign Language Feature: The subject matter in Hungary's harsh Holocaust drama is already Oscar-bait, but the film's 40 mm. narrow-field camerawork seals the deal with a personal perspective. Plus, the film won the Cannes Grand Prix prize.
Sylvester Stallone - Best Supporting Actor: Celebrated theater actor Mark Rylance had this Oscar wrapped up for his superbly detailed, comically deadpanned Soviet spy in Steven Spielberg's fact-based “Bridge of Spies.” Then, along came Stallone's comfortable-as-an-old-leather-coat performance as Rocky Balboa in “Creed.”
In 1976, Stallone lost the Best Actor Oscar for “Rocky.” Voters will makes amends for this on Sunday night. Besides, nothing impresses voters better than a nostalgic comeback.
Alicia Vikander - Best Supporting Actress: The Swedish actress had an impressive year, and not just for her nominated performance as an artist married to a transgender painter in “The Danish Girl.” Plus, her role was more of a lead one than a supporting turn, and Oscar voters will likely reward her.
Ennio Morricone “The Hateful Eight” - Original Score: The Italian composer is 87 and never won a competitive Oscar (nominated six times so far) for his great film scores, among them “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly,” “The Mission” and “The Untouchables.” It's time.
Other predictions
Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu for “The Revenant”
Original Song: “'Til It Happens to You” from “The Hunting Ground”
Costume Design: “Cinderella”
Documentary Feature: “Amy”
Documentary Short: “Body Team 12”
Adapted Screenplay: “The Big Short”
Original Screenplay: “Spotlight”
Hair and Makeup: “Mad Max Fury Road”
Production Design: “Mad Max Fury Road”
Visual Effects: “Mad Max Fury Road”
Sound Editing: “Mad Max Fury Road”
Sound Mixing: “Mad Max Fury Road”
Editing: “Mad Max Fury Road”
Animated Short: “Sanjay's Super Team”
Live-Action Short: “Ave Maria”
88th annual Academy Award nominations
Best Picture
“The Big Short”
“Bridge of Spies”
“Brooklyn”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Room”
“Spotlight”
Actor
Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
Matt Damon, “The Martian”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
Actress
Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Brie Larson, “Room”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Big Short”
Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”
Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”
Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”
Rooney Mara, “Carol”
Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”
Directing
“The Big Short,” Adam McKay
“Mad Max: Fury Road,” George Miller
“The Revenant,” Alejandro G. Inarritu
“Room,” Lenny Abrahamson
“Spotlight,” Tom McCarthy
Foreign Language Film
“Embrace of the Serpent”
“Mustang”
“Son of Saul”
“Theeb”
“A War”
Adapted Screenplay
“The Big Short”
“Brooklyn”
“Carol”
“The Martian”
“Room”
Original Screenplay
“Bridge of Spies”
“Ex Machina”
“Inside Out”
“Spotlight”
“Straight Outta Compton”
Animated Feature Film
“Anomalisa”
“Boy and the World”
“Inside Out”
“Shaun the Sheep Movie”
“When Marnie Was There”
Production Design
“Bridge of Spies”
“The Danish Girl”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
Cinematography
“Carol”
“The Hateful Eight”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Revenant”
“Sicario”
Sound Mixing
“Bridge of Spies”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
Sound Editing
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Sicario”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
Original Score
“Bridge of Spies”
“Carol”
“The Hateful Eight”
“Sicario”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
Original Song
“Earned It” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”
“Manta Ray” from “Racing Extinction”
“Simple Song #3” from “Youth”
“Til It Happens To You” from “The Hunting Ground”
“Writing's on the Wall” from “Spectre”
Costume Design
“Carol”
“Cinderella”
“The Danish Girl”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Revenant”
Documentary Feature
“Amy”
“Cartel Land”
“The Look of Silence”
“What Happened, Miss Simone?”
“Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom”
Documentary (short subject)
“Body Team 12”
“Chau, Beyond the Lines”
“Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah”
“A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness”
“Last Day of Freedom”
Film Editing
“The Big Short”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Revenant”
“Spotlight”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared”
“The Revenant”
Animated Short Film
“Bear Story”
“Prologue”
“Sanjay's Super Team”
“We Can't Live Without Cosmos”
“World of Tomorrow”
Live Action Short Film
“Ave Maria”
“Day One”
“Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)”
“Shok”
“Stutterer”
Visual Effects
“Ex Machina”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
Countdown to Oscar!
6 p.m. Red carpet coverage begins on Sunday, Feb. 28, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood
7:30 p.m. Controversial comedian Chris Rock hosts the 88th annual Academy Awards live.
Note: Viewers can watch the Oscars televised on ABC-7 or can live-stream the event by going to
ABC.com or by using the WATCH ABC app.