Chicago Cubs no longer a surprise

Something awaits the Chicago Cubs that hasn't awaited them in years: expectations.

Just 12 months ago, the Cubs were expected to be an "improved" team, one that might win 82-85 games on the road back to respectability.

Instead, they shocked the baseball world by winning 97 in the regular season before beating the Pittsburgh Pirates in the wild-card game and the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League division series. That magical run ended with the New York Mets sweeping the championship series.

As the Cubs head to spring training in Mesa, Arizona, this week, they won't be sneaking up on anybody, either in the desert or when regular-season play begins in April.

That seems to be OK with the Cubs, who finished third in the NL Central last year, but with the third-best record in major-league baseball.

Much will be expected - and rightly so - this season. With that in mind, here are five topics of discussion before pitchers and catchers report to Sloan Park on Friday:

Forget 97 wins:

Each year is different, and fans shouldn't worry about the Cubs matching their victory total from a year ago. Team management isn't necessarily looking to do that.

The 2015 Cubs had a run differential of plus-81, contributing to an "expected" win-loss record of 91-71.

"Getting to 97 was a pretty amazing accomplishment," general manager Jed Hoyer told fans during last month's Cubs convention. "It's something that has to be taken in context. I think a normal run differential for a 97-win team would be considerably higher.

"That's one of our goals: We're trying not to focus too much on 97 wins. There's a chance that we have a better, more complete team coming up and aren't able to get to that kind of win total.

"I think the dynamics of the National League (this) year will be that it will take a lot of wins to make the playoffs, and we know that. We're very focused on our run differential, very focused on possibly having a more dominant team. Wherever our win total ends up, I think that's really the most important thing."

If history's a guide, the 2003 Cubs won 88 games and made it to Game 7 of the NLCS. The 2004 club won 89 games and didn't make the playoffs.

Beware the X-factor:

Injuries are the X-factor for any team in any sport.

The Cubs' pitching staff last season, especially the starting rotation, made it through virtually unscathed. Jon Lester battled a shoulder ailment late in spring training, and Jason Hammel had a hamstring problem for a time during the season, but that was about it.

The Cubs can't count on that this year. Again, looking at history, the 1984 Cubs won the NL East, but the '85 season was blown apart by injuries to the starting rotation.

Making sure the Cubs are prepared is one reason you'll see at least eight pitchers "stretched out" in spring training.

The Cubs made an important signing this winter, adding John Lackey as a free agent to fill the No. 3 spot behind Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta and Lester. Behind Lackey are Hammel and Kyle Hendricks, who had his ups and downs last year during his first full major-league season.

Adam Warren came from the New York Yankees in a trade for Starlin Castro. He will push the back part of the rotation. The Cubs also may stretch out Travis Wood and Trevor Cahill, a bullpen mainstay during the stretch drive of 2015.

The next step:

One of this management team's favorite sayings is that "progress is not always linear." In other words, sometimes the team, and/or its players, will take a step backward before taking another step forward.

The Cubs have made steady progress during the Epstein/Hoyer regime. Now we'll see how the young players perform after having success in 2015.

Specifically, can players such as Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber avoid the dreaded "sophomore jinx" in 2016?

There's no such thing as a "jinx." More likely, players who fall off in their second season do so because opposing pitchers have adjusted to them, and the hitters have been slow to adjust back.

All of the Cubs' youngsters endured some growing pains during the 2015 season, and they'll be challenged again this year.

Where to fit them all:

Javier Baez came up last September, and the natural shortstop saw time all over the infield late in the regular season. When starting shortstop Addison Russell was hurt in the playoffs, Baez stepped in.

Russell returns to spring training healthy, and the Cubs signed Ben Zobrist to play second base. They also signed Jason Heyward to a eight-year, $184 million contract. Heyward is a Gold Glove right fielder, but he may have to open in center field because the Cubs still have Jorge Soler.

Baez and Soler have been the subject of trade talk. These things have a way of working themselves out.

Don't worry about the pen:

One year ago, the names Clayton Richard and Trevor Cahill were not on the minds of Cubs fans or anyone who covered the team. But they played huge roles in the bullpen after being acquired during the season.

The bullpen is the most fickle and finicky aspect of any team.

The Cubs got good work from closer Hector Rondon, who saved 30 games in 34 opportunities last year. Setup men Justin Grimm and Pedro Strop were mostly good.

The Cubs would love to have hard-throwing right-hander Neil Ramirez healthy for a full season. Lefty Wood was a big plus after being demoted from the starting rotation. Veterans Jason Motte, Phil Coke, Rafael Soriano and Fernando Rodney also contributed at various times last year.

Bet on another parade of relievers making their way through Wrigley Field in 2016. That's just the nature of the game.