Roosevelt political science professor weighs in on 2016 race

While many recognize the current presidential campaign as something they've never quite seen before, Roosevelt University Professor Paul Green explained why Wednesday at a legislative forum hosted by the Schaumburg Business Association.

He also gave fair warning to Northwest suburban residents that they're likely to be wooed aggressively in several upcoming races, including those for U.S. Senate and state legislative seats.

"Your mail carriers are probably going to end up with hunched backs," joked Green, the Arthur Rubloff Professor of Policy Studies and director of the Institute for Politics at Roosevelt University.

He predicted that a potential U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Mark Kirk and Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth could be the biggest in the nation - generating between $30 million and $40 million in campaign funding.

"If you're involved in any of this, keep your wallet close and your checkbook too, because it's going to be expensive," Green said.

As far as the presidential primary races go, Green reminded his audience that winning the party nomination and winning the general election are two very different things.

"The adage is you win the nomination by going to the left or right of your party, then come back to the middle for the general election," Green said.

Heading into the 2016 race, Democratic favorite Hillary Clinton holds both a major advantage and a major disadvantage. While impressed with Clinton's ability to remain in the public eye for more than 20 years, Green said her hopes are challenged by the difficulty for any party to win the presidency three times in a row. Before George H.W. Bush bested Michael Dukakis in 1988, you have to go back to Harry Truman's election for the next most recent example.

Among the Republicans, it's of little surprise that Donald Trump is generating the most attention, given his vast media experience, Green said. Trump's political inexperience also is working in his favor, Green said.

"Now, if you have experience, if you have a record, in the Republican party that's a disadvantage," he added.

Having crossed paths with Trump in Chicago earlier this year, Green said another great part of the businessman's advantage comes from within.

"He's one very bright person and he knows exactly what he's doing," Green said. "He's just unique. He makes it much more interesting. The question remains, how far can he go? He is in it. It puts the others at a disadvantage."

Green predicts the growing Hispanic vote will play a large role in next year's election, and candidates will have to curb anti-immigration stances to win important states such as Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Georgia.

"In this election, less than 70 percent of the people voting will be Caucasian," he said. "In politics, there are no silver medals. You either win or you lose.'

Green also addressed the current state of politics in Springfield, comparing it to "discussing the nuances of the Titanic."

He said the battle between Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner and Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan is one of politics, not policy. While the budget impasse endures, state officials are acting as if the expired income tax increase is still in effect.

"If you in local government did that, you'd soon be wearing stripes - and not vertical ones," Green joked.