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Rozner: One big game can change Cubs series

Never underestimate great pitching.

If there's a lesson in this for anyone who thought the Mets would be a pushover for the hot-hitting Cubs, it's that pitching in October is the immovable object.

Especially when it's cold and the wind is knocking the ball down.

If there's a surprise, it's only that Matt Harvey returned to being Matt Harvey so quickly, especially in light of his bizarre September following the innings controversy that plagued the entire team.

Otherwise, the Mets were the same team in New York over the weekend that they've been since they were 41-41 on July 4, playing 18 games over .500 in the second half.

They have extraordinary starting pitching and a shutdown closer, and the Cubs' best hope is to make the starters work deep into counts and try to get them out of the game before they can reach Jeurys Familia.

The Mets obviously can't compete with the Cubs' offense when it's right, but Yoenis Cespedes changed their lineup at the trade deadline and made them a serious threat in the National League.

The Mets haven't won a game at Wrigley Field since 2013 and the Cubs were 7-0 against the Mets in the regular season, but the last time the two teams played was July 2.

"It's definitely a different team than we faced in the regular season," said Tuesday starter Kyle Hendricks. "They made some major changes."

And now with Daniel Murphy doing his best Will Clark imitation, the Mets are getting just enough offense to win.

"He's swinging a hot bat for sure," Hendricks said. "You definitely have to be careful. I have to stay on the edges and be careful."

So the Cubs are in a tough spot, facing the Mets' top starter in Jacob deGrom and going with Hendricks, who couldn't make it out of the fifth inning against the Cardinals in Game 2 of the NLDS after the Cubs had staked him to a 6-1 lead.

After giving up a bomb to the first batter he ever faced in the postseason, Hendricks got 14 of the next 15. But Hendricks - a candidate to miss the postseason roster before two strong starts to end the season - gave up 2-out homers to Kolten Wong and Randal Grichuk in the fifth, and that was the end of his day.

He will have a short leash again as the Cubs are in a do-or-die situation. Only the 2004 Boston Red Sox have ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a seven-game series in major league history.

"I'd just rather attempt to go out and win (Tuesday's) game. That's it," said Cubs manager Joe Maddon. "I don't want them to think about it in any other way, shape or form. It's about Tuesday.

"Again, I've been kind of repeating the same mantra the whole way through. We need to put together several one-game winning streaks. If we keep it one game at a time, we've a good shot of doing it. If you want to get into that result-oriented method of thinking, it's not going to play. So for me, for us, I'm really happy our guys have adopted that method." he said.

"We'll come out (Tuesday) and we'll be ready to play. Our guys are always ready to play. Their prep is great. The camaraderie among the group cannot be better. It's impossible. So we'll go out and play and the expectation is to win one game at a time," Maddon added.

It's not as if the Cubs weren't in those games over the weekend. They were a swing away from tying Game 1 and they had the right guys at the plate in Game 2 with a chance to get back in it.

What they haven't done is play good enough defense, while the Mets have been nearly spotless, save the play in the ninth Sunday night when Familia failed to cover first and gave the Cubs some life.

So while it doesn't look pretty, this series can change quickly if the Cubs win a game Tuesday that they're not supposed to win, not with Hendricks facing deGrom.

Just as the Cubs were supposed to win with Jon Lester facing an unpredictable Harvey in Game 1, the Mets fully expect to take Game 3 and an insurmountable lead in the NLCS.

"It's always about starting pitching," Maddon said. "I used to do clinics in the '90s a lot and said this game could easily have been called 'Pitching' as opposed to 'Baseball.'

"That's what it's all about. It's not like we pitched poorly. They've just pitched extraordinarily well for the first two games and that's the result.

"I'd like to believe with a little warmer weather (at Wrigley Field this week), our guys are going to have a little better feel at the plate."

Teams with a 2-0 lead in a league championship series are 22-3, with only the 1985 Royals, 1985 Cardinals and, of course, the 2004 Red Sox as the only teams to recover from such a big hole.

All three of those teams were on the road for the first two games and played the middle three at home - if you're looking for one more reason to keep the faith.

brozner@dailyherald.com

• Hear Barry Rozner on WSCR 670-AM and follow him @BarryRozner on Twitter.

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