Why Bears are probably stuck with Cutler this year

Bears general manager Ryan Pace did not achieve his present position at the young age of 37 by being unable to recognize the obvious.

And it was obvious that Pace would have to start the job of rebuilding the Bears with Jay Cutler at quarterback because no one was going to trade so much as a handful of “magic” beans to get the reigning NFL turnover leader and his guaranteed $15.5 million base salary.

The Bears still have until Thursday to cut Cutler and avoid paying him $10 million in guaranteed money for the 2016 season. But cutting Cutler to save that $10 million means the Bears would have to swallow this season's $15.5 million base to make him go away, and that doesn't make any fiscal sense.

The key question now is this: How much longer will Cutler be a Bear? The answer: This year for sure; next year, maybe; after that, doubtful.

Neither Pace nor head coach John Fox has offered anything close to an endorsement of Cutler as the team's quarterback beyond the coming season. That will change when it becomes official that Cutler isn't going anywhere.

If Cutler is still a Bear on the third day of the 2016 NFL calendar, the remaining $6 million of that year's $16 million base salary becomes guaranteed. That would be the end of the guaranteed portion ($54 million) of the $126.7 million contract the quarterback signed on Jan. 2, 2013.

That contract, more than any other single decision, is the reason Phil Emery is no longer the Bears' general manager.

But I digress. After the 2015 season, it will be much less painful financially to part with Cutler, since the Bears would only — and, yes, that's a relative term here — be on the hook for the $10 million that becomes guaranteed on Thursday.

Cutler is not guaranteed any money after the 2016 season, so cutting him after the 2016 season costs nothing and saves plenty. But he still won't be tradable, given the base salaries in the final four years of his contract.

Cutler would be due base salaries of $12.5 million in 2017, $13.5 million in 2018, $17.5 million in 2019 and $19.2 million in 2020. In addition, in each of those four seasons, he can earn an additional $2.5 million in per-game roster bonuses.

Cutler will turn 34 before the 2017 starts and, if he's still playing football, it will be under a different contract.