A scary playoff scenario in the DuPage Valley

Welcome to the midway point of the football season.

Most folks said that leading up to Week 5, but anyone hoping to make a state-title run considers this week — Week 7 — to be halfway home. Hard to believe, but seven weeks from now we'll be talking about championship matchups for Thanksgiving weekend.

For now, though, you, me and Eyes on Five are still trying to figure out how the next three weeks will play out.

Bad news in the Valley:

The possible scenarios in the DuPage Valley Conference are endless, and most of them are not pretty.

Here's the darkest possibility ... only one playoff qualifier — Naperville Central (5-1) — from the six-team league.

It'd be unheard of in the DVC, where Glenbard North's qualified in 11 straight seasons, Naperville North in 17 straight seasons, Wheaton North in seven straight and Wheaton Warrenville South in 10 of the last 11 seasons. All four programs in addition to Lake Park could be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.

In this “Doomsday” scenario Naperville Central beats Wheaton North (2-4) on Friday to hand the Falcons their fifth, playoff-eliminating loss. Naperville North (2-4) stays alive with four losses by beating WW South (2-4) and eliminating the Tigers. Lake Park (4-2) beats Glenbard North (3-3), putting the Panthers a loss away from elimination.

In Week 8 Naperville Central beats Lake Park (which falls to 5-3). Wheaton North beats Naperville North to eliminate the Huskies and WW South beats Glenbard North to eliminate the Panthers.

Glenbard North, Naperville North, Wheaton North and WW South all would be eliminated with a week still to play.

Finally, in Week 9 Wheaton North beats Lake Park to knock the Lancers down to 5-4. Now a bubble team for the postseason, the Lancers miss the playoffs despite having 5 wins because they lack enough playoff points (a strength-of-schedule number representing the total number of wins by a team's opponents).

And just like that, five DVC teams miss the playoffs. Only Naperville Central remains to carry the flag and defend the Class 8A title.

Will it go down like that? Probably not, simply because the DVC is impossible to predict.

Still scary, though.

And now the good news:

As many as five DVC teams qualify for the playoffs in the “Dream” scenario, leaving Naperville North as the only non-qualifier. Before Huskies fans get too steamed, though, keep in mind this is only a scenario and not a prediction.

Wheaton North and WW South win their final three games to qualify at 5-4. Glenbard North wins two of its last three, losing to WW South in Week 8, to also finish at 5-4.

Naperville Central loses its final three games, while Lake Park goes 1-2 but manages enough playoff points to qualify at 5-4.

Five five-win DVC teams make the playoffs, but this “Dream” scenario is far less likely to come to fruition than the “Doomsday” scenario.

Whether it's one qualifier, five or anywhere in between, no one in the rest of the state would look forward to a first-round matchup with the DVC. In this immensely unpredictable season, any one of the six teams could be poised for a playoff run.

Now hear this:

In case you missed it, and most of us did, on Friday the Illinois House Elementary and Secondary Education Committee held its second hearing designed to gain insight on the inner workings of the IHSA.

You didn't miss much.

Not only did more than half the committee not attend its own hearing, the IHSA itself sent no representatives to protest the way the hearing was being conducted. Executive Director Marty Hickman said last week that despite his attendance at the first hearing in the spring, no one from the IHSA would attend the second hearing after being denied in advance the opportunity to speak.

Hickman also questioned the timing of the hearing. Holding it late Friday afternoon in the fall, he suggested, prevents supportive school administrators from attending. They're too busy preparing for football games and homecoming ceremonies.

The shifting agenda of the hearing was also an issue for the IHSA. On Friday the committee heard compelling testimony from witnesses regarding catastrophic injuries and revisited scholastic bowl controversies that were a focal point of the first hearing.

In any case, it sounds like we'll need to endure at least one more hearing. Committee Chairperson Linda Chapa LaVia said an all-day event in central Illinois is in the works at an undetermined date.

Can't wait.

4. Strike talk:

Also on Friday, teachers in Hinsdale Township High School District 86 filed a 10-day notice to strike. That means they could walk as early as Oct. 14.

In football terms that means the start of Week 8. It's a significant point because the football teams at Hinsdale Central (4-2) and Hinsdale South (5-1) are working to clinch playoff berths.

The prospect of forfeiting one or two games at the end of the regular season could be disastrous, but both teams still have a shot at the postseason if Hinsdale Central beats Hinsdale South on Saturday.

They'd both have five wins at that point, which would make them eligible for at-large bids regardless of whether or not they have to forfeit their last two games. A Hinsdale South victory over the Red Devils clinches a playoff berth for the Hornets but leaves Hinsdale Central in need of at least one more win.

Hope for a new contract with teachers rests in negotiations scheduled for Thursday. We'll know more at that point, including if the school board aims to follow through on its contingency plan to keep the schools open during a strike. It's unclear how that plan affects athletics and activities.

If Monday's school board meeting was any indication — a meeting attended by hundreds of concerned parents that lasted until well after midnight — there's definite motivation to avert a strike.

5. Stat time:

Six DuPage County teams already know their fate for Week 10.

Addison Trail, Glenbard West and Waubonsie Valley all improved to 6-0 last week, meaning they've clinched a playoff berth. Unfortunately, barring an unprecedented shift in statewide results and playoff points, Downers Grove North, Lisle and Willowbrook each have been eliminated from playoff contention because of their status as five-loss teams.

Expect a bunch more fates to be decided this week. Five-win Hinsdale South and Naperville Central can clinch playoff berths, while IC Catholic Prep, Naperville North, Wheaton North and WW South enter the weekend with a precarious four losses.

Follow Kevin on Twitter @kevin_schmit