Turning 30 shouldn't slow down Bears' Marshall
If you're wondering why the Bears just gave Brandon Marshall a $30 million, three-year contract extension two months after his 30th birthday, stop it. Odds are Marshall will be worth every penny, and might even outperform his contract.
When it comes to elite wide receivers — and Marshall certainly is in that category — some of their most productive seasons, and often more than half of their career production, comes from age 30 and beyond.
Three of the 20 most prolific pass catchers in NFL history are still active, but of the remaining 17, 10 were more productive from their first season as a 30-year-old and beyond than they were before turning 30. That includes each of the top five pass-catching wide receivers in league history — Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Cris Carter, Tim Brown and Terrell Owens.
Unlike NFL running backs, most of whom are used up by age 30, top-notch wideouts seem to thrive in their 30s. Nine of the 17 top pass catchers who are retired played more seasons after turning 30 than they did before then. Rice played 13 seasons after turning 30, catching 1,023 passes. In the seven years before that, he caught 526.
It's unlikely anyone will ever match Rice for longevity. But many of the top wideouts who played the same number of years from age 30 and beyond, as they did before turning 30, were more productive when they were older.
• Cris Carter had eight seasons in each category yet had 45 percent more receptions (652-449) in his final eight years than in his first eight, and he had 62 percent of his TD catches.
• Tim Brown had 70 percent more catches (689-405) from age 30 on than he did before he hit that age.
• Derrick Mason had 72 percent more receptions (596-347) in eight seasons after turning 30 than the seven before.
• Jimmy Smith is the best example of a wide receiver getting better with age. He had more than twice as many receptions, yards and touchdowns starting with his first season as a 30-year-old than he did pre-30.
As Marshall prepares to enter his first season as a 30-year-old, the numbers indicate that he's still in his prime. His first two seasons with the Bears were the most productive back-to-back seasons of his eight-year career and the most productive in franchise history. In 2012-13, Marshall caught 218 passes for 2,803 yards and 23 touchdowns.
If Marshall is able to play the next eight years at a pace that comes close to matching his first eight, he would retire with numbers that, as of now, would be second only to Rice.
Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin are all well ahead of Marshall for now, but Wayne is 36, Johnson 33 and Boldin 34. Among active players, Marshall also trails Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker and Steve Smith, but Fitzgerald is 31, Welker 33 and Smith 35.
As for the Bears' record book, Marshall should own most of the significant career receiving marks by the time his contract extension expires at the conclusion of the 2017 season after just six years with the franchise.
And it won't be a surprise if he's still going strong by then.
• Follow Bob's Bears and NFL reports on Twitter@BobLeGere.
Top NFL receivers
Rk. Player catches yards TDs
1. Jerry Rice career: 1,549 22,895 197
7 seasons before age 30: 526 9,072 93
13 seasons from age 30 on: 1,023 13,823 104
2. Marvin Harrison career 1,102 14,580 128
6 seasons before age 30 522 7,078 62
7 seasons from age 30 on 580 7,502 66
3. Cris Carter career 1,101 13,899 130
8 seasons before age 30 449 5,853 49
8 seasons from age 30 on 652 8,046 81
4. Tim Brown career 1,094 14,934 100
8 seasons before age 30 405 6,076 46
9 seasons from age 30 on 689 8,858 54
5. Terrell Owens career 1,078 15,934 153
7 seasons before age 30 512 7,470 72
8 seasons from age 30 on 566 8,464 81
6. Isaac Bruce career 1,024 15,208 91
8 seasons before age 30 537 8,405 56
8 seasons from age 30 on 487 6,803 35
7. Reggie Wayne career 1,006* 13,556* 80*
7 seasons before age 30 494 6,984 47
6 seasons from age 30 on 512* 6,572* 33*
8. Hines Ward career 1,000 12,083 85
8 seasons before age 30 574 7,030 52
6 seasons from age 30 on 426 5,053 33
9. Randy Moss career 982 15,292 156
9 seasons before age 30 676 10,700 100
5 seasons from age 30 on 306 4,592 56
10. Andre Reed career 951 13,198 87
9 seasons before age 30 586 8,233 56
7 seasons from age 30 on 365 4,965 31
11. Derrick Mason 943 12,061 66
7 seasons before age 30 347 4,946 30
8 seasons from age 30 on 596 7,115 36
12. Art Monk 940 12,791 68
7 seasons before age 30 456 6,650 28
8 seasons from age 30 on 484 6,141 40
13. Andre Johnson 927* 12,661* 61*
8 seasons before age 30 673 9,164 50
3 seasons from age 30 on 254* 3,497* 11*
14. Torry Holt 920 13,382 74
7 seasons before age 30 619 9,487 54
4 seasons from age 30 on 301 3,895 20
15. Keenan McCardell 883 11,373 63
8 seasons before age 30 372 5,209 27
8 seasons from age 30 on 511 6,164 36
16. Jimmy Smith 862 12,287 67
5 seasons before age 30 265 4,038 22
7 seasons from age 30 on 597 8,249 45
17. Muhsin Muhammad 860 11,438 62
7 seasons before age 30 431 5,509 25
7 seasons from age 30 on 429 5,929 37
18. Anquan Boldin 857* 11,344* 65*
7 seasons before age 30 586 7,520 44
4 seasons from age 30 on 271* 3,824* 21*
19. Irving Fryar 851 12,785 84
8 seasons before age 30 308 4,935 34
9 seasons from age 30 on 543 7,850 50
20. Rod Smith 849 11,389 68
5 seasons before age 30 257 3,811 25
9 seasons from age 30 on 592 7,578 43
41. Brandon Marshall 712* 9,050* 57*
8 seasons before age 30 712* 9,050* 57*
? seasons from age 30 on ??? ????? ??
* active player