Could Des Plaines casino be state's biggest?
SPRINGFIELD — After the Rivers Casino opens in Des Plaines this summer, its first year open could make it the most popular casino in Illinois, early revenue estimates suggest.
In the past, the Grand Victoria Casino in Elgin has been the state's leader in adjusted gross receipts — the measure of how much a casino takes in from gamblers.
But new casinos often open with big numbers as gamblers flock to check out a new facility. And its proximity to the Elgin riverboat means the Rivers Casino, scheduled to open mid-July, could draw some of Elgin's gamblers away.
All in all, Eric Noggle, a senior analyst with the bipartisan Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, said his conservative estimate would have the Rivers Casino taking in nearly $260 million in receipts its first year.
The Grand Victoria's receipts totaled about $287 million last year, more than what Rivers is expected to bring in. But gambling revenues are trending down in Illinois, and Noggle expects Rivers to draw significant amounts of money from casinos in Elgin, Aurora and even the two in Joliet.
COGFA's estimates are widely trusted by lawmakers of both parties in Springfield and often used to craft budgets and measure the state's deficit.
If the Des Plaines casino hits Noggle's estimate, it would mean $12 million in new money for the state and about $15 million to be split among Des Plaines and other suburbs.
Tom Swoik, executive director of the Illinois Casino Gaming Association, said it isn't unreasonable to predict the Rivers Casino could become the state's biggest.
“I think it's mostly because of location,” said Swoik, who represents both the Elgin and Des Plaines facilities, among others, in Springfield. “And it's a brand new facility.”
A spokeswoman for the Des Plaines casino declined to comment on the revenue estimates, saying the company was busy preparing for the opening.
The estimates could all change, though, if lawmakers approve proposals to expand gambling. For one, those proposals may alter gambling tax rates that determine how much money the state and local officials get from the boats.
“That would change everything,” Noggle said.
And if lawmakers agree to allow slot machines at Arlington Park and other racetracks, it would create increased competition, and could drive Des Plaines' numbers down.
As it is, Noggle said, the Rivers Casino might expect its own revenues to drop in future years — even without competition — as the novelty of a new casino fades.
And revenue from the state's casinos continues to drop across the board as the recession weighs on gamblers' wallets. In fact, even with $12 million in new money from the opening of the Rivers Casino, Noggle expects the state to take in less than the previous year in gambling taxes overall.
As part of the license agreement, Rivers Casino also has to send a percentage of its revenue to the horseracing industry, the Cook County legal system and Chicago State University.