Bulls-Heat: Who has the edge?
Mike McGraw breaks down the Eastern Conference finals between the Bulls and Miami Heat. Not all of these categories are designated to give one team an edge.
Star power
Derrick Rose deserved to win the MVP award, no matter how many Miami media members argue otherwise, and he’s become a great late-game finisher. Some would claim he’s been the best in the NBA this season because he can drive to the rim and knock down jumpers in crunchtime.
Heat stars LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have had less luck in late-game situations. Miami is a stunning 3-11 in games decided by 4 points or less. Both James and Wade have carried teams into the Finals in the past, though, and neither one has to work as hard as Rose.
Edge: Heat
Defending LeBron
It’s possible no NBA player has spent as much time guarding James as Bulls forward Luol Deng. No one would ever claim Deng can shut down James, but he has a good idea of what to do within the confines of team defense. The strength of the Bulls’ defense is mobile big men such as Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson who can slide over and give help quickly. James averaged 27.5 points, 9 rebounds and 5.5 assists against the Bulls in the regular season.
Defending Wade
Keith Bogans had fun pushing around the bigger Joe Johnson in the last series, but he doesn’t have the speed to keep up with Wade for long. Since the Bulls can’t bring back Kirk Hinrich on loan, Ronnie Brewer is the best defensive option against Wade. There were times when Tom Thibodeau used Kyle Korver to guard Wade and the Bulls got away with it. Wade scored 33 and 34 points in the two games at the United Center this season.
Defending Rose
The Heat has been starting Mike Bibby in the playoffs and he has trouble guarding anybody these days, let alone Rose. If the starters remain the same, look for Mario Chalmers to jump off the bench quickly. Joel Anthony, the team’s best defensive center, figures to play often to help stop Rose at the basket. The Heat tried using James against Rose late in games, with mixed results. Rose averaged 29 points, 6.3 assists and shot 44.6 percent against Miami in the regular season.
Outside shooting
This figures to be one of the keys to the series, because if Wade and James can pass it out to someone who knocks down an open 3-pointer, there may be no hope of stopping the Heat. James Jones is shooting 44.4 percent from 3-point range (16-for-36) during the playoffs. Miami knocked down 13 of 28 attempts from behind the arc in the Jan. 15 game when James didn’t play, then was 5-for-21 in the other two contests.
Kyle Korver had a rough finish to the Atlanta series, but he’s at 47.4 percent (18-for-38) in the playoffs. The two home wins against Miami turned on late 3-pointers by Korver and Luol Deng. The Heat was slightly better than the Bulls from long range in the regular season, .370 to .361.
Edge: Heat
Rebounding
This has been a significant Bulls strength and they dominated the Heat during the regular-season games in second-chance points (55-27) and offensive boards (33-20). James is Miami’s second-best rebounder at 7.5 per game, behind Chris Bosh’s 8.3. Veteran Udonis Haslem, out since Nov. 20 with a foot injury, should play during the series, but he’s unlikely to see more than spot minutes. Joakim Noah is averaging 10.4 rebounds in the playoffs, with Carlos Boozer at 9.5.
Edge: Bulls
Defense
These teams ranked 1-2 in defensive field-goal percentage during the regular season, with the Bulls first at .430. In points allowed, the Bulls ranked second (91.3) and Miami sixth (94.6). The Bulls have a slight edge in blocked shots and forcing turnovers.
Edge: Bulls
Referee relations
During their 10 playoff games, Miami shot an astonishing 104 more free throws than their opponents. Wade shot 31 free throws in three games against the Bulls this season. During the playoffs, Rose has risen to superstar territory in getting to the line. Rose is averaging 9.3 free-throw attempts per game, right between Wade’s 9.5 and James’ 9.2. In theory, more physical play is allowed in the playoffs, but Miami’s stars tend to complain early and often if they don’t think they’re getting appropriate treatment from the officials.
Edge: Heat
Bench
The Bulls’ Bench Mob has faded a bit while getting fewer minutes in the playoffs. But it made a comeback late in the Atlanta series, with Taj Gibson averaging 10.7 points and hitting 18 of 24 shots in the last four games. Brewer and center Omer Asik chipped in defensively. Miami has gotten a boost from 3-point specialist James Jones, and backup point guard Mario Chalmers will likely play more than starter Mike Bibby.
Edge: Bulls
Prediction
Anything could happen in this series. The Bulls should be strong enough defensively to keep the games close. The question is if Miami can turn around its dismal record in close games and overcome the Bulls’ homecourt advantage.
Bulls in 7