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How Walsh surprised Bean

National climate, slow-to-react campaign cost incumbent, experts say

Joe Walsh shouldn't have stood a chance.

National pollsters put such little stock in the tea party candidate's bid to unseat three-term Democratic incumbent Melissa Bean that most didn't even bother handicapping the 8th Congressional District contest.

Bean spent nearly four times as much on her re-election bid, and the national GOP didn't contribute a dime to the political newcomer's campaign, publicly dismissing the district as likely to stay Democratic.

That's why some are calling Walsh's apparent victory over Bean one of the most shocking upsets in not just the state, but the nation.

“This is without a doubt one of the biggest upsets of the entire election cycle, period,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a New York-based nonpartisan newsletter.

With all precincts reporting late Wednesday, Walsh held a scant, 553-vote lead over Bean out of more than 200,000 votes cast.

Bean's campaign is saying they think provisional and absentee ballots could erase that margin and have not given up. Walsh is confident enough in the outcome that he's declared victory.

Either way, the McHenry resident's rise from obscurity and his campaign's ability to right itself after early controversy and missteps is a remarkable story.

The candidate himself said his campaign was the very definition of grass-roots, and that people filled the gap created by a dearth of money.

The tea party faithful did what was available to them. They e-mailed, tweeted and worked Facebook. They stood in line outside the Grayslake High School gymnasium for Bean and Walsh's only face-to-face debate, to make sure they got the seats and shut Bean's supporters out of the event.

Then, they stood up en masse for a spontaneous recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance that hijacked the debate from the high school kids and League of Women Voters moderators who organized it, and with that they made the Glenn Beck show on Fox News Channel. They videotaped Bean at other events and edited the footage for YouTube.

And although their numbers were growing, the lack of huge ad buys still kept most of the campaign under the radar.

Walsh said Bean unwittingly helped his campaign by appearing “arrogant,” when she refused more than one debate with Walsh, pointing out that Bean made the same charge against former Congressman Phil Crane when she upset him in 2004. He said Bean's votes for the federal stimulus and health care reform bills made her vulnerable.

Kent Redfield, a University of Illinois at Springfield political science professor, said in truth the 8th District remains very much Republican in terms of its base vote.

The 2008 general election was atypical due to Barack Obama's popularity, Redfield said. Bean cruised against Republican Steve Greenberg in 2008 with 61 percent of the vote. But she got just 51 percent in 2006 and 52 percent in 2004, the year she beat Crane.

The national wave of anti-Democrat, anti-incumbent sentiment also played a critical role Tuesday, DePaul University political science professor Michael Mezey said.

“Moderate Democrats like Bean got hit the hardest,” he said. “They need to be moderate in order to appeal to their districts, but those moderate voters are the very people turning on the Democratic Party this election.”

This year more than others, intense focus was placed on national issues such as jobs, health care and the stimulus bill. When that happens, local accomplishments get overshadowed, experts say.

“My guess is she (Bean) was relying on her good will and stressing being a hardworking member of Congress ... which is fine if the election in your district stays local in focus,” Redfield said. “It's clear the dynamic (Tuesday) was national and the voters were blaming the Democrats for causing problems or not fixing them.”

One way to fight the national trend is for candidates to make their opponents the issue, and convince voters they're unqualified for the job. But Bean waited until less than three weeks before the election to run negative ads painting Walsh as an extremist.

“She should have been constantly trying to push Walsh below the threshold of acceptability in voters' minds by running negative ads,” Redfield said. “She probably started way too late.”

The presence of Green Party candidate Bill Scheurer of Lindenhurst also likely hurt Bean's re-election bid.

Scheurer's name was already familiar, since he ran for Congress in 2008 and for state representative as a Democrat in 2004. And Mezey said most of the 6,400 voters who backed Scheurer on Tuesday are probably progressive liberals who would have otherwise voted Democratic.

Cal Skinner, a former state representative who runs the conservative McHenry County Blog, attributed Walsh's success to the candidate himself. He said he's never seen anyone running for office work so tirelessly and enthusiastically.

“He projects an intensity unlike most candidates,” Skinner said. “It turns some people off, but to others it's inspiring.”

Ÿ Daily Herald staff writer Eric Peterson contributed to this report.

  Presumed 8th Congressional District winner Republican Joe Walsh works out of a makeshift office Wednesday in Barrington, a day after his possible upset of incumbent Rep. Melissa Bean. Bob Chwedyk/bchwedyk@dailyherald.com
  Presumed 8th Congressional District winner Republican Joe Walsh and his wife, Helene, work out of a makeshift office Wednesday in Barrington, a day after his possible upset of incumbent Rep. Melissa Bean. Bob Chwedyk/bchwedyk@dailyherald.com
  Presumed 8th Congressional District winner Republican Joe Walsh works out of a makeshift office Wednesday in Barrington, a day after his possible upset of incumbent Rep. Melissa Bean. Bob Chwedyk/bchwedyk@dailyherald.com
  Presumed 8th Congressional District winner Republican Joe Walsh works out of a makeshift office Wednesday in Barrington, a day after his possible upset of incumbent Rep. Melissa Bean. Bob Chwedyk/bchwedyk@dailyherald.com