Narrow losses could mean Chicago Bulls on verge of breakthrough
During their dismal start to the 2004-05 season, the Bulls played a home game against Dallas in December.
It was one of those nights that happens to young, incompetent teams in the NBA. Dirk Nowitzki was sent to the foul line 19 times. The Bulls did everything they could but finished with a frustrating 94-93 loss, dropping to 4-15.
Maybe it wasn't obvious at the time, but playing well against a good team was a sign those Bulls were on the right path. They won the next five games, 13 of the next 16 and finished the season with a 47-35 record.
The current Bulls are on a run of three straight games of frustration. They had the final shot with a chance to win or tie three times in a row but ended up losing to Golden State, Miami and Toronto in the past four days by a combined 8 points.
Close losses, especially against good teams, can be a sign of progress. The Bulls demonstrated as much in 2004-05, and the same thing happened before their 14-7 stretch of 2017-18.
So coach Jim Boylen could be right when he suggested the Bulls are on the verge of a breakthrough.
"We're going to keep pounding the rock and keep playing hard and working at it and I'm confident we'll break through," Boylen said after the 93-92 loss to Toronto. "But this one stings, just like (Sunday) night (at Miami)."
To win close games in the NBA, teams need a closer.
Zach LaVine missed a 3-pointer against Golden State, then tried driving to the basket Monday but was thwarted by Marc Gasol's help defense. In Miami, Lauri Markkanen got a pretty good look at a corner 3-pointer to tie the game at the end of overtime, but it was off-target.
The final possessions went awry, but Boylen is right when he says the breakthrough could happen at any point in a game.
The Bulls shot just 26 percent from 3-point range against Toronto. If one or two of those open misses go in, they probably win the game.
With 2:57 left in the fourth quarter against Miami, Kris Dunn had a nice drive to the hoop and a relatively uncontested layup, but he couldn't finish. The Bulls led by 3 at the time and probably would have won if that layup fell.
Here's an example of how the Bulls are making positive progress: Over the last seven games, they rank fifth in the league in defensive rating, the number of points an opponent scores per 100 possessions. The other nine teams that rank in the top 10 have a combined record of 47-16 over their past seven games.
The Bulls' defense has been pretty good and is getting better. They rank 12th over the full season in defensive rating, lead the league in forcing turnovers and are third in opponents' 3-point percentage.
They're starting to get contributions from more people. Denzel Valentine has scored in double figures for three straight games, while Daniel Gafford did well against Toronto while Wendell Carter Jr. was in foul trouble.
Obviously, the next step is to start winning, and there's no guarantee the Bulls will get there. A major drawback to this team - which has been pointed out many times - is having just one guy on the active roster, Thad Young, with any sort of winning experience in the NBA. And Young usually doesn't play in crunchtime.
The 2004-05 Bulls had a very young roster but relied heavily on veterans Antonio Davis and Adrian Griffin. To have a shot at playoff contention this season, the Bulls probably needed 75 games of Otto Porter's A-level performance. So far, they've gotten maybe two games of that, and Porter isn't likely to return to from a foot injury before 2020.
Monday's game against the Raptors was another one of those nights when the Bulls' offensive philosophy of launching at will from 3-point land seemed incredibly misguided. They set a franchise record for 3-point attempts in the first half (27) and shot a robust 22.2 percent.
It was the seventh time this season the Bulls shot below 30 percent from 3-point range. Overall, they rank eighth in the league in 3-point attempts and 23rd in 3-point percentage. In the eight games they've shot better than 40 percent from behind the arc, the Bulls have gone 5-3.
With Porter out, Boylen is faced with the nightly dilemma of whether to use Kris Dunn in the fourth quarter.
Dunn's a good defender, but teams typically make no attempt to guard him at the 3-point line, where he's shooting 19 percent. On Monday, Boylen went with Valentine, a 45-percent 3-point shooter but poor on-ball defender.
Two home games against teams with losing records are up next, so there's a chance for the Bulls to get on the right track. Wednesday's opponent, Atlanta, will be playing a tough back-to-back after visiting Miami on Tuesday.
Realistically, the Bulls probably have reached their limit of narrow losses. It's time to start winning, before their momentum turns in the wrong direction.
Porter updated: Otto Porter had his injured left foot examined by Dr. Bob Anderson in Green Bay, Wis., on Monday. The team said the exam confirmed a bone injury consistent with a small fracture. Porter will be reevaluated in four weeks, keeping him sidelined into January.
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Bulls game day
Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks, Wednesday 7 p.m. at the United Center
TV: NBCSCH; Radio: WSCR 670-AM
Outlook: The Hawks recently endured a 10-game losing streak but had since won two of three heading into Tuesday's game at Miami. ... PG Trae Young is doing well in his second season, averaging 28.8 points and 8.4 assists. But Atlanta lost PF John Collins to a suspension, which left them relying too much on their two rookies. SF DeAndre Hunter is averaging 12.1 points, while SG Cam Reddish is off to a rough start, at 8.0 ppg while shooting 25 percent from 3-point range. ... Former Bulls PF Jabari Parker is the team's second-leading available scorer at 16.2 ppg. ... The Bulls beat the Hawks in Atlanta 113-93 on Nov. 6, matching their largest margin of victory this season.
Next: Charlotte Hornets, Friday 7 p.m. at the United Center
- Mike McGraw