Rozner: Length of Darvish contract doesn't scare Cubs
With seven being one more than six, the Cubs are guaranteed four more years of Kris Bryant.
With that math firmly in tow, think of it as the “Bryant window,” and it might give you some idea of why Theo Epstein was willing to go six years for 31-year-old Yu Darvish, knowing it's unlikely that the Cubs will enjoy the deal on the back end of it.
The Rookie of the Year in 2015 and the MVP in 2016, Bryant is as irreplaceable as any name on the roster, a threat to post MVP numbers every season and a key cog in a powerful lineup.
As long as Bryant is here, and they maintain a reasonable amount of health in the rotation, the Cubs are a threat to reach the World Series every season.
As evidence we offer three straight NLCS appearances.
During the next four years of Bryant, the Cubs have Darvish for all of it, Jon Lester for at least three (fourth-year mutual option), Kyle Hendricks for three and Jose Quintana for three.
That's a pretty strong top four — as always — assuming health.
In the field with Bryant, Anthony Rizzo is signed for four more years at an average salary of only $12 million.
They are also guaranteed four more years of Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell and Javy Baez, and five more years of Willson Contreras and Albert Almora, if the Cubs choose to retain those players.
Like it or not, they have six more years of Jason Heyward, since he's unlikely to opt out and there's not a great chance they can move that contract.
There's also six more years of Ian Happ.
Add it up and that's four very good starters and nine position players under control for at least the time Bryant is here, with the hope that they may be able to sign Bryant before he reaches free agency at the age of 30.
That's a pretty good spot to be in, not to mention the upcoming free agency of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado at age 26. The Cubs will undoubtedly be interested in both, probably in that order, as will most every team in baseball.
From the beginning of this process, the plan was to reach a place where they would have a chance to reach the postseason every year, and now the Cubs have an opportunity to get to four straight League Championship Series.
In the last 20 years, only the Cards (2011-14) and Yanks (1998-01) have done it, but the signing of Darvish puts the Cubs in a great position.
Since missing the 2015 season after Tommy John surgery, Darvish returned to make 17 starts in 2016 and 31 in 2017.
There is risk, of course, given the miles and injury history, but you can make that argument against virtually any pitcher.
Darvish had an up-and-down 2017 season, with his strikeout rate down and his ERA up, but the 186 innings bodes well for a team that doesn't need Darvish to dominate until the postseason.
Last October for the Dodgers, he threw like an ace against the Diamondbacks and Cubs in the playoffs, before the Astros pounded Darvish twice in the World Series when they caught him tipping pitches.
The Cubs obviously aren't worried about that and if he's merely good during the regular season, the Cubs' rotation just became one of the best in the game.
So, yes, the length of the deal isn't pleasant, but the Cubs paid a premium in years for a cheap annual value ($21 million a year) that gives them another front-end starter.
If they win another World Series in the next four years, they won't care about whether the contract looks bad at the end.
The math will speak for itself.
brozner@dailyherald.com
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