Ostrowski: Chicago Cubs will need Davis at top of his game
Wade Davis has had a remarkable 2017, and the Cubs will need his improbable year to continue to make it back to the World Series.
The closer's first blown save came in his 33rd opportunity and Game No. 154 of the season. Davis' 97 save percentage is second best in MLB, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers' Kenley Jansen.
Davis has a 2.38 ERA and .178 batting average against, even though he has a career-high 12 percent walk rate and declining fastball velocity.
Walks are the only concern when Davis is on the mound, but they haven't come back to haunt the Cubs … yet. Numerous peripheral statistics suggest the results he is getting don't match his performance. It all goes back to the walks.
Last October and November, manager Joe Maddon used Aroldis Chapman in 13 of 17 postseason games. The 2016 closer was asked to go more than 1 inning in five of his last six appearances - four World Series games and the NLCS Game 6 clincher.
Will Maddon use 32-year-old Davis the same way as Chapman? He certainly will.
In last Thursday's extra-inning victory over the Brewers, Davis got five outs, four of them strikeouts. He escaped a bases-loaded jam in the ninth inning and struck out the side in the 10th.
Davis has pitched three consecutive days at three different times this year. There won't be an opportunity to do that in the NLDS. The NLCS and World Series would be a different story.
In 2014 and 2015, Davis threw more than 1 inning six different times in the playoffs with the Kansas City Royals. Two full innings in four of those appearances.
The Cubs' starting rotation has averaged 5⅓ innings per start this season. That's down from 6⅓ last year. The postseason is managed differently, but the bullpen has been asked to get three more outs.
The pen will be one of the most fascinating storylines in October. Aside from Davis, which arms does Maddon trust?
Reliever Justin Wilson has struggled since arriving in a trade from Detroit nearly two months ago. It was a lot of Chapman and Mike Montgomery in 2016. Maddon will need more than two primary relievers if starters fail to go deep in games.
For now, it's safe to say that Theo Epstein fleeced the Royals on Dec. 7, 2016, in the Davis trade. At the time, many called it a win-win deal.
The Cubs sent Jorge Soler to Kansas City with four years of team control. In Soler's first year with the Royals, he had career lows in batting average and on-base percentage. He also played 74 games in the minors.
Winning trades are nice, but the Cubs want to win the last baseball game of the year.
• Catch Joe Ostrowski on WSCR 670-AM. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeO670.