Wagering expert shares his Kentucky Derby picks
I have a gambling problem. I admit it.
It's bad. And embarrassing. And it's got to end.
But wait. It's not what you're thinking. Or what I think you're thinking. You see, my problem isn't that I'm betting too much. I'm not betting enough.
I was horrified to realize the other day that my 2017 racetrack wagering is down more than 70 percent from previous years. Come on. A man who calls himself a handicapper and a gambler - someone who had his first encounter with an OTB as a toddler and was raised on the gospel of the Daily Racing Form - has a reputation to uphold, a pari-mutuel obligation to fulfill. You know what happens otherwise? They downgrade you - the racing gods do; they're watching - to "civilian" status. You become just another square, a zero.
There are any number of factors contributing to this mess (work, I will note to my bosses, being one of them) but I'm vowing to put these troubles behind me. For tomorrow is the Kentucky Derby. And what better time to snap out of a betting funk than on the biggest racing day in America.
I have meticulously pored through past-performance sheets, analyzed the film from dozens of races, dialed in to day after day of workout-session reports and am officially ready to gamble. No more fooling around.
For those kindred spirits out there who are of a similar mindset, I offer up my analysis of the field, including my top pick, McCraken, who I will play to win and in exacta wagers with a pair of long shots: Tapwrit and Battle of Midway. (Horses are listed by post position. Odds are Churchill Downs's forecast of how gamblers will bet the race.)
No. 1 Lookin At Lee (20-1) - Something of a plodder. Unlikely to win but could clunk up late for a minor prize.
No. 2 Thunder Snow (20-1) - Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed's horse. This will be his debut race in America. It won't be a winning one.
No. 3 Fast and Accurate (50-1) - Slow and Accurate would be a more appropriate name.
No. 4 Untrapped (30-1) - I can't knock anyone who wants to put a few greenbacks on him at a big price. His last race was better than it looks on paper. He can run a little.
No. 5 Always Dreaming (5-1) - He might prove to be the most talented in this three-year-old crop when it's all said and done. He's fast and can seemingly run all day. But I don't love this inside post position for him and I'm also not crazy about how high-strung he's appeared in his morning gallops in Louisville. Needs to settle into a comfortable beat early.
No. 6 State of Honor (30-1) - Not without ability, but he's just too anxious in the early stages of races to run effectively at a long distance like this.
No. 7 Girvin (15-1) - He comes into the race nursing a bad hoof that's compromised his training. I'll pass.
No. 8 Hence (15-1) - Pretty quirky horse. Acted like a lunatic when winning for the first time back in January, then got trounced in his next start before rebounding to win a race in New Mexico. Maybe a candidate for a minor prize.
No. 9 Irap (20-1) - He was a shocking 31-1 upset winner in his last race. I need to see him do it again to believe it.
No. 10 Gunnevera (15-1) - He'll drop far back early and make a big, looping charge on the far turn. That style makes him a fun horse to watch, but he needs things to set up perfectly to have a chance.
No. 11 Battle of Midway (30-1) - Probably in over his head but I'm intrigued. Seems like a fighter. Playable at a big price.
No. 12 Sonneteer (50-1) - He's winless in 10 races, which kind of feels like a problem.
No. 13 J Boys Echo (20-1) - Just OK.
No. 14 Classic Empire (4-1) - Last year's two-year-old champ is real classy and has shown an affinity for the Churchill Downs racing surface. I can't bet him at this kind of short price, though, given all the setbacks he had in his training this winter.
No. 15 McCraken (5-1) - This horse is the goods. He relaxes nicely early, settles in toward the back of the pack and then flashes an explosive turn of foot late. True, he just suffered his first career defeat but that race was a means to an end - a way to tighten him up for this spot. Besides, the lackluster effort will drive some gamblers away and push up his odds (expect him to drift above that 5-1 estimate). He's undefeated on the Churchill Downs strip and has looked great the past few weeks. His trainer Ian Wilkes oozed confidence when I spoke to him earlier this week: "I think he's peaking." So do I. And I'm betting him.
No. 16 Tapwrit (20-1) - A closer who possesses a big finishing kick. He needs to bounce back after flopping badly in his last race. Strong workouts the past couple weeks indicate he may be ready to do just that.
No. 17 Irish War Cry (6-1) - Very nice horse. Capable of not only winning but winning in a romp. Yet, given how mysteriously awful his race back in March was (he finished more than 20 lengths behind the winner that day), I can't bet him at this price. Was it just some weird one-off blip? Or will he do it again Saturday? It's a nagging doubt in the back of his trainer's mind. And mine too.
No. 18 Gormley (15-1) - In a year of very erratic Derby contenders, he may be the most erratic of them all. And even on his best day, I suspect he's a cut below the top horses in here.
No. 19 Practical Joke (20-1) - Hedge-fund guru Seth Klarman's horse is pretty talented but seems better suited for shorter-distance races.
No. 20 Patch (30-1) - Cool name, interesting back story. He's missing an eye. He's also pretty slow.
Papadopoulos, a managing editor at Bloomberg News, votes in the industry's annual Eclipse Awards. He has been publishing his Triple Crown picks since 2012.