Winter storm packs less punch than feared

Suburban residents can put away the snowblowers and shovels, for now.

Weekend forecasts warning up to 14 inches of snowfall by Wednesday fell far short of the mark. Snow accumulation across the region ranged between 1 and 3 inches as of Wednesday morning.

It points to the unpredictability of this winter storm, evidenced by rapidly changing "weather models" - computer simulations based on millions of data points.

While initial models called for heavy snowfall, the weather service adjusted its forecasts downward as the week began and the storm's intensity decreased drastically.

"We try to avoid advertising some of the higher (snowfall) totals until we have more confidence in it," said meteorologist Jake Petr with the National Weather Service in Chicago. "The ingredients that kind of come together for creating a snowstorm looked especially good for a short period of time. It's fairly difficult to put out snowfall totals more than two to three days in advance."

This storm was harder to predict because it formed over the region rather than coming into it.

Two weaker low-pressure systems ­- one from the west that passed over the Rocky Mountains and one from the north coming down from Canada - converged to cause this winter storm, meteorologists said.

Aside from snow tapering to light flurries heading into Wednesday afternoon into early evening and temperatures dipping at night with gusty north winds, the rest of the week should remain fairly dry, according to the weather service.

"We have temperatures hovering around just below freezing," Petr said. "Tonight temperatures are going to drop down to the upper teens."

Motorists are urged to watch out for patchy, snow-covered roads running mostly east-to-west, and slick conditions.

Highs in the low 30s are expected through Saturday with a bit of warming Sunday heading up to the mid-40s by Monday.

A warmer moisture system is expected to hit Monday into Tuesday bringing light rain.