Arkush: If there's a game for Bears to win, it's this one
harkush@profootballweekly.com
Coming into the 2016 season, it seemed the Bears had a fairly easy schedule with the second half being a bit more challenging than the first half of the season.
But as quickly as things change in the NFL these days I always caution folks about reading too much into a schedule before you play it.
As it turns out with the Cowboys and Texans in first place and the hot early start by the Eagles, the schedule hasn't been horrible and it isn't that easy. After further review, the second half may now be the softer slate.
The most winnable game the Bears have left beyond the 49ers at home on Dec. 4th is this Sunday in Tampa.
Of course, that's not to say the Bears are a lock.
Jameis Winston looks like a guy who's going to be a very good quarterback, may even earn that "franchise" mantle, but he's still a ways off.
If the Bears fail to pressure Winston, confuse him with coverages and fail to take the ball away from him a couple times - which has been a shortcoming of this defense - he will beat them,
Other teams have had little trouble doing that to Winston this season, particularly in Tampa. His 17 touchdown passes are impressive, but his 9 picks and 3 fumbles not so much.
Eight of those TD passes are to the NFL's leader in that category, Mike Evans, who is also among the league leaders in drops but remains one of the best young receivers and a bit of a matchup nightmare.
Tracy Porter has been outstanding this season as a shutdown corner and probably will shadow Evans, but the five inches and 30 pound he will give up will be too much, as it is for most defensive backs. The Bears will have to have a high safety over the top of him most of the time as well.
The Bucs had one big explosion on the ground a few weeks ago behind ex-Bear Jacquizz Rodgers and Peyton Barber, but they're still just 16th in the league running the ball, and Rodgers is now hurt.
Tampa does hope to get Doug Martin back Sunday but the O-line is mediocre at best and the Bears "D" should be able to handle the run and could have a big day hitting Winston, particularly if Eddie Goldman is back and close to 100 percent.
If that all sounds promising, consider that Tampa's defense and its special teams form a greater weaknesses.
The Bucs "D" does, however, have a few special players at each level that can be problematic.
Gerald McCoy is one of the best three-techniques in the NFL, but William Gholston, Clinton McDonald and Robert Ayers are just guys around him.
Noah Spence is an exciting young pass rush prospect, but that's all he is right now.
The two most dangerous players on the Bucs' defense besides McCoy are MIKE linebacker Kwon Alexander and WILL-backer Lavonte David.
How Cody Whitehair, Kyle Long and Josh Sitton deal with McCoy and then get to the second level to work on these two will probably dictate the success of the Bears offense.
As for what to expect Sunday from Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Cameron Meredith, Brent Grimes is still a pretty good corner and Vernon Hargreaves III on the other side is the kid many thought the Bears should have grabbed instead of Leonard Floyd.
Hargreaves has shown promise but he is small and will struggle if asked to deal with Jeffery or Meredith.
If 23 in pewter and red looks familiar, that's because Chris Conte is the third-leading tackler on the Bucs defense. That he and Bradley McDougald are the Bucs safeties should tell you all you need to know about how beatable the Bucs are today.
They are also 3-5, a game better than the Bears, so let's see if the Bears' newfound confidence is well placed.
• Hub Arkush, the executive editor of Pro Football Weekly, can be reached at harkush@profootballweekly.com or on Twitter @Hub_Arkush.