Rozner: Keys to a long Chicago Cubs postseason run
Five years in the making and 103 victories, but now it's all about three series and 11 more wins.
The Chicago Cubs have the talent to get it done, and there's no reason to fear the bounce of a ball or the luck of the draw.
It's execution, plain and simple. All you have to do is ask Jeurys Familia.
The Cubs have the best players and now it's time to play the best.
But there are some keys to what happens in October and the Cubs will need the following - beyond the obvious - in order to play until Halloween:
Jake Arrieta
The undisputed ace coming into the season based on a historical 2015 campaign, Arrieta has not looked anything like that pitcher over the last four months.
And the Cubs need Arrieta to be much better in October. This is a genuine cause for concern and the sample size is not small.
Over his last 18 starts dating to June 17, Arrieta has gone more than 6⅓ innings only four times (22 percent), has given up 4 or more earned runs seven times (39 percent) and 3 or more walks eight times (44 percent).
Arrieta has walked 44 batters in 106 innings in those 18 starts after walking 48 in all of 2015 (229 innings). His ERA has jumped from 1.74 to 3.10 with a 4.24 ERA in that span. His 50 earned runs since June 17 are more than all of 2015 (45).
Arrieta has been mediocre for more than half a season, and certainly not good enough to inspire confidence heading into the postseason.
He doesn't have to be Arrieta from 2015. That's impossible.
But he has to be good.
Anthony Rizzo
There's little doubt that Rizzo will be Rizzo, and the Cubs will need him to be. Rizzo led the Cubs in homers, RBI and batting average with runners in scoring position, and his 1.07 OPS with RISP was best on the club by 300 points.
Addison Russell
Russell led the Cubs in late-inning/close-game RBI with 16. He also tied for the team lead (Ben Zobrist) in two-out RBI (30), and led the team with 27 RBI with RISP and two outs.
He had the most at-bats on the team in that category in 2016, and he's going to get those chances in the postseason. The Cubs will need him to come up big in difficult at-bats.
Lengthen the lineup
It seems safe to assume that Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Dexter Fowler will perform well offensively, and the Cubs hope Russell will continue to produce.
But without Kyle Schwarber in the postseason hitting like he did a year ago, someone else will have to lengthen the lineup.
So who is going to come up big? Jorge Soler was huge in the playoffs last year, but his health is a question. It would be great to get something from Jason Heyward, but that's a big ask.
Zobrist has been there before and a couple of big hits out of him would be huge. Perhaps the guy to watch is Javy Baez, who has the potential to hit the ball a very long way.
Anything out of the catching position would be a bonus.
The bullpen
In a perfect world, the starter gets you to Aroldis Chapman. That's the ideal formula in the postseason.
But the Cubs will need a bridge to the closer, assuming the starters are doing their jobs and giving the Cubs 6 or 7 innings.
When Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop are healthy, they've been plenty good enough to get the job done. Joe Maddon adores Justin Grimm, and he might be the key to getting the ball to Chapman if there are any issues with Strop or Rondon.
The reality
It's never easy to win in October, and this won't be any different.
The Cubs will face Madison Bumgarner in Game 3 in San Francisco on full rest, and the way Arrieta has been pitching the Cubs need to win the first two at home or risk a quick exit.
The Cubs have been the best team in baseball all season, and if they play that way against the Giants they'll be back in the NLCS.
And if their starting pitchers at least match the performance of the Giants, that will go a long way toward telling the final story.
brozner@dailyherald.com
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