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Bulls facing long odds at draft lottery

Over the past decade, the Bulls are undefeated in the NBA's draft lottery.

They made one appearance during that time frame, in 2008, and overcame long odds to land the No. 1 pick, which they used to select Derrick Rose.

So should the Bulls feel confident heading into Tuesday's lottery? Absolutely not. Their chances of moving into the top 3 are literally slim and none. As the best team to miss the playoffs this season, the Bulls have a 0.5 percent chance to land the No. 1 pick when the Ping-Pong balls are finished bouncing.

That doesn't mean the lottery is insignificant to the Bulls. At the very least, they'll come away with the No. 14 pick. And it's very possible there will be some high draft picks traded this year, because of the rising salary cap.

In the past, a majority of NBA teams usually headed into the summer above the cap. So trading a salaried player for a draft pick was tricky, because salaries had to come close to matching if both teams were over the cap.

This year, pretty much every NBA team will have at least $20 million in cap space, thanks to the league's generous new television deal. Trading a draft pick for a high-salaried player is suddenly feasible.

The Bulls are looking to shake things up after a disappointing 42-40 season. Already, there have been rumors that Boston and the Los Angeles Lakers might be willing to send the No. 1 overall pick for Jimmy Butler. Philadelphia has the best odds at landing the No. 1 selection (25 percent), followed by the Lakers (19.9 percent) and Brooklyn (15.6 percent), whose pick belongs to Boston from the Paul Pierce-Kevin Garnett trade a few years back.

The 76ers could end up with two top five picks, because if the Lakers fall out of the top three, their pick goes to Philadelphia. If that turn happens, there are reports Philadelphia will look to trade at least one of the picks.

Butler seemed to announce his preference by not only sitting next to coach Fred Hoiberg and general manager Gar Forman at the NBA draft combine in Chicago this week, but also by choosing to represent the Bulls onstage at the draft lottery.

Butler wants to stay with the Bulls, but after missing the playoffs for just the second time in 12 seasons, the team should do its due diligence. Butler certainly has more trade value than any other player on the Bulls' roster.

Would it make any sense to trade Butler for a draft pick? The short answer is no. Butler is a two-time all-star and the guys expected to go 1-2 in the draft - 6-9 Duke freshman Brandon Ingram and 6-10 LSU freshman Ben Simmons - aren't likely to turn any team into an instant title contender. They may turn out to be great players down the road, but there are never any guarantees.

Ingram's long, thin frame reminds many of Kevin Durant. His skills show potential, but he's not nearly as polished as Durant was when he entered the draft. Simmons, an Australia native, is an impressive athlete who probably needs to develop his outside shot to become an NBA star.

Trading for one of the top two picks would be a bold move, but don't expect the Bulls to perform a complete roster overhaul. The goal of ownership is to be in the playoffs every year and rebuilds are risky, as the Bulls demonstrated from 1999-2004.

But what if the Bulls were offered a draft pick and a player? Would the Bulls trade Butler for the No. 1 pick plus Lakers' guard Jordan Clarkson? For the No. 2 pick plus Boston's Avery Bradley? How about Butler and Gibson to the Lakers for the pick and Julius Randle? It's tough to predict what other teams will offer, but the possibilities are endless.

If the Bulls keep Butler, would Gibson or Nikola Mirotic bring a mid-lottery pick in return? Hard to say, but an extra pick could deliver an athletic wing like Cal freshman Jaylen Brown or Oklahoma's Buddy Hield, statistically the best college 3-point shooter since Steph Curry.

If the Bulls stay at No. 14, they might be able to land a raw, gifted prospect like Kentucky's 7-foot Skal Labissiere or 6-9 Washington freshman Marquese Chriss. They could look for a potential Rose backup or replacement in Notre Dame's Demetrius Jackson or Vanderbilt's Wade Baldwin. They could also consider the foreign route with someone like 6-7 Timothe Luwawu from France or 6-7 Furkan Korkmaz from Turkey.

Get the latest Bulls news on Twitter by following @McGrawDHBulls.

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