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Brazil's past still clouds its future

Anyone who lives in Rio de Janeiro for a spell, as I did, is bound to hear one or many versions of how big, bountiful and sometimes bad Brazil has been blessed by God with riches undreamed of.

"Brazil is the country of the future," was the favorite version in my time. Then the speaker would pause, smile and add, "And always will be."

That added phrase has carried the truth of Brazil over virtually all of its history - pointing to the corruption, the lack of education and the incoherence of its structures. And then, suddenly, it all seemed to change.

After the huge country's military regimes faded back into their armories and Fernando Henrique Cardoso, an internationally respected sociologist and scholar, became president from 1995 to 2002, the historically languid country seemed to perk up its ears. President Cardoso listened to the unrest in Brazilians' souls and laid the basis for a modern state, right here, right now.

Then - oh, then! - came the best surprise of all. The Workers Party, a leftish party that veered from socialism to social democracy and back again, amazingly won the elections in 2002. And the presidency was at first handled with great finesse by the new leader, the wildly popular Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, popularly known as "Lula."

By this time, the enormous country was finding itself able to blend a kind of socialism with modern democracy, to inspire Brazilians with the spirit of equality and the adventure of individuality. One of the first things Lula did, for instance, was to write a letter to business owners assuring them that their investments would be safe with him. And in the beginning, they were.

Brazil was emerging on the world stage as a contender. Suddenly it was an "emerging nation," and not a "failed state." It was a global standout, even among the four "BRICs," which in socioeconomic-eze stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China, fast-growing economies expected to change the world.

Brazil was moving, and it was moving with such joy in these new geopolitics that it unthinkingly went right ahead and won the right to hold the Summer Olympics and Paralymics in Rio de Janeiro this August and September. "Rio 2016," it's called there. But, in truth, the decision is also being called other things these days.

After all those moments of hope, we again see a Brazil burdened with massive corruption. The new president, Dilma Rousseff, a one-time Marxist guerrilla who served time in jail and only came to her present position in 2011, is now being threatened with impeachment, and if she isn't, her vice president is, and if he isn't, well ...

While none of the big players have been found guilty as yet, one of the danger signals comes from Lula's two terms as president. In fact, in order to protect Lula from police, President Dilma offered him a cabinet job. The police listened in to their conversation, as they have been listening in to an amazing number of people for months. Nevertheless, Lula was at least temporarily in reprieve.

The main part of the corruption probe has to do with illegal payoffs to contractors by Petrobras, the national oil company, with losses to the state estimated at up to $12 billion. But there are other corruption scandals, as well. It is like a poison spreading across the country, from the beautiful Atlantic beaches, to the central highlands and jungles, and through the jungle up the spine of the Andes.

What is there little doubt about? That this is the greatest scandal ever in Latin America.

And then there are the Olympics. What to do with the "favelas," those sinister shacks that the poor "live" in on the mountains that back up Rio? What to do about the bays along the Atlantic, many of the waters now poisoned? What to do with protesters when you have a parlor full of leading sports officials from all over the world?

There are, of course, no answers as yet - perhaps no answers ever. Yet, most Brazil-watchers see something important and good emerging from this period - for Brazil, but also for Latin America as a whole.

Paulo Sotero, head of the Wilson Center's Brazil Institute in Washington, cites a poll in which nine of 10 Brazilians want the Petrobras prosecutions to continue, even if they hurt the economy. "A change of attitude toward corruption" may be coming, Sotero wrote. "The passivity that was once expected of law enforcement officials ... is a thing of the past."

The Financial Times Brazil bureau chief, Joe Leahy, writes that President Rousseff "may leave Brazilians at least one enduring, positive legacy: the growing independence of its investigative institutions." And she embraces the manner in which investigators had "imploded a centuries-old culture of impunity for the rich and powerful."

The apocryphal story about God and the promise of Brazil still does not have a proper ending; yet, for the first time, we can see a future that may be freeing itself from the past.

Email Georgie Anne Geyer at gigi_geyer@juno.com.

© 2016, Universal

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