St. Charles school enrollment projections may mean redistricting, school closures

A tumultuous debate could be brewing over closing schools and redrawing attendance boundaries in St. Charles District 303.

A citizen committee reviewed several school enrollment projection models Wednesday night and came to the conclusion that the swarms of new families once flooding the district now are gone. Probably.

Local birthrate data and housing development projections forecast the 2024-25 student population as high as 12,000 students - and as low as 8,660 students. All of the models were laced with what-ifs: What if a big new housing development comes into the district? What if a slew of empty nesters find young families to buy their homes? What if a more robust economy kick-starts desires for bigger families?

But even with no certainty in the birthrate trends or housing development forecasts, committee members agreed the next decade most likely will see a total student population somewhere between 10,000 and about 11,700. Either way, that's much less than the current enrollment of 12,868 students.

What that means is school officials likely will recommend school board members redraw the school attendance boundaries. And, with dwindling state school funding and local tax rates inching upward, there could be at least a suggestion to close or repurpose one or more schools to save money and reduce taxes.

Superintendent Don Schlomann said both of those moves will be very hard for a community - one that loves its neighborhood schools - to swallow. Schlomann and district staff members now will work on new attendance boundary maps and consider closures for the school board to vote on. The board will get its first full look at the enrollment projections next month. Then the hard work begins, Schlomann said.

"This community has always been feeling like it's growing, growing, growing," Schlomann said. "I still hear, from time to time, questions about when are we going to build a third high school. What we've got to get around people's heads is the whole concept of no, we're not growing. In fact, we may be declining."

In the coming months, Schlomann said he fully expects pleas from parents trying to keep their students at particular schools or wanting to keep buildings open for which enrollment projections are too low.

"And all the property tax payers will say we should be going with the lower projections, and why aren't you closing more (schools)," Schlomann said. "So you've got to try to balance all that. That's the board's job. Our job is to present what we believe are reasonable solutions that can work for this community. And I also think we have to have backup plans in case we're wrong."