The good and the bad for the Chicago Cubs at the break

Think back to the Cubs convention in January.

If team president Theo Epstein would have told you then the Cubs would be 47-40 at the all-star break and on pace for 88 wins, would you have taken it?

Sure, you would have.

That's where the Cubs stand today, and as a midseason bonus they hold a 1-game lead in the race for the second wild-card spot in the National League.

The roster has gone through the changes all rosters go through during the season. On Opening Night, Mike Olt was the starting third baseman, and Tommy La Stella was at second.

Nowadays, those spots are manned by Kris Bryant and Addison Russell, respectively. Yeah, things changed.

The Cubs have been as many as nine games over .500 in the first half of the season. There have been the usual ups and downs along the way. Let's look at three up and three down, staring with three up:

Rizzo and Bryant:

This 1 and 1A combo headed for Cincinnati and the All-Star Game minutes after Sunday's 3-1 victory over the White Sox was completed.

The symbolism is hard to miss. These corner infielders are the cornerstones of the Cubs' future.

Rizzo, the “veteran” at 25, leads the Cubs in almost all key offensive categories with a line of .298/.413/.542 with 16 homers and 48 RBI.

Bryant, 23, has 12 home runs since his April 17 call-up, and he leads the team with 51 RBI to go along with his line of .269/.376/.472.

Both players are in the top 10 in offensive wins above replacement (oWAR), in calculations used by both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Rizzo is top 10 in overall WAR by Baseball Reference, and both players are top 10 by FanGraphs.

Jake can rake:

No. 2 starting pitcher Jake Arrieta showed he can rake at the plate Sunday, when he hit a home run. But on the mound, he is the true ace of the Cubs' starting rotation.

He has a 10-5 record with a 2.66 ERA and a WHIP of 0.99. Both the ERA and WHIP put him among the league leaders. He has tied his career high for wins, and with a team-high 121⅔ innings pitched, he should be a cinch to reach 200 for the first time in his career.

As a side note, Jon Lester, signed to be the ace, has pitched much better than his 4-8 record indicates. FanGraphs has him 11th in pitchers WAR.

Overall, the top four spots in the rotation have been solid, with Arrieta, Lester, Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks placing well in several basic and advanced statistical metrics.

Good penmanship:

Manager Joe Maddon has been creative with his bullpen, using three closers, with veteran Jason Motte being the go-to guy lately.

After some early hiccups, the pen went into the break with a 3.13 ERA and a WHIP of 1.22.

Pedro Strop may not get many more save chances after a key blown opportunity against the Cardinals last week, but he remains an effective setup man along with right-handers Justin Grimm and Neil Ramirez.

The Cubs were fortunate to bring back lefty James Russell on the cheap after the Braves let him go at the end of spring training. Russell has held down the left side with Zac Rosscup on the disabled list.

Of course, things can be better in several areas. Here are three down:

Starlin not starring:

After a bounce-back season last year that seemed to answer some doubts, shortstop and three-time all-star Starlin Castro is off to a brutal start at the plate, with a line of .247/.283/.321.

No matter who measures it, Castro has been a replacment-level player in the first half, with negative offensive WAR numbers.

Even if the Cubs want to trade him, his current value won't bring much in return. Manager Joe Maddon says Castro has a lot left in the tank. It's time to step on the gas.

The leading man:

Dexter Fowler, the Cubs' primary leadoff hitter, had 3 hits Sunday, but all that did was bring his line up to .232/.308/.369. A .308 on-base percentage won't get it done.

Maddon has pointed to Fowler's career record (lifetime OBP of .366) as reason for optimism. Fowler is hitting more flyballs and fewer groundballs this year. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .283, down from last year's .351. A correction toward .300, which can be expected, should help.

Pleading (for) the fifth:

There's a reason the fifth starter is the fifth starter. For various reasons, including injury and ineffectiveness, the Cubs have used Travis Wood, Tsuyoshi Wada and Clayton Richard as their fifth starter.

Wood opened the season in the rotation, but he went 2-2 as a starter with a 5.59 ERA. It's gone much better for Wood in the pen. He's 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA as a reliever.

The fifth-starter's spot has just 4 of the Cubs' 45 quality starts. Wada is currently rehabbing an injury in the minor leagues. Depending on how that goes and how Richard pitches next week, the fifth spot could be a revolving door in the second half unless and until the Cubs can trade for a starting pitcher.

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