State track math a tricky thing
Based on the numbers, Neuqua Valley seeks to improve upon sectional positioning to capture its first boys state track title this weekend in Charleston.
"We're going for a state championship. We're not going to hide that," said Wildcats coach Mike Kennedy, whose squad placed fourth in Class 3A in 2014, second in 2009 and third in 2010.
Professionally, Wildcats assistant coach Jaime Janota is an English teacher. After Neuqua Valley won at Plainfield North, a sectional Kennedy called "a meat grinder," Janota morphed into numbers-crunching mode and handicapped the entire 3A meet.
Calculating points on individual and relay seeds coming out of the 11 sectionals, Janota scored the meet as if those results will hold firm this weekend. Due to any number of factors, from typical Charleston swelter to simple luck good or bad, that won't happen.
It's still fun to contemplate.
Edwardsville, the Normal Community West sectional winner which in 2014 tied Lake Park for second place in 3A, is slated to come out on top with 50.2 points based on seeds entering the state meet. Last year York won 3A with 40 points.
The rest of Janota's top 10 with prospective points: Lakes (34.25), Evanston (33), Neuqua Valley (30), Plainfield Central (28), East St. Louis (26), Springfield (26), Barrington (25.5), Oak Park (23.5) and Lake Park (23.25).
Janota didn't score either Class 2A or Class 1A - he's crazy but he's not nuts, since Neuqua deals only with Class 3A - but he did extend his work to all 82 teams that enter Charleston with a top-nine seed. That includes Glenbard West, whose 3,200-meter relay of Chris Buechner, Nate Crail, Jake Jaskowiak and Ben Hecht finished second at the York sectional with the ninth-fastest seed time in the state.
After Lake Park's speculative 10th place, other top-20 West Suburban teams in this equation are No. 17 West Aurora with returning all-state jumpers Chris Walker and DaVion Cross seeded third and fourth, respectively, in triple jump; and No. 20 York, on the back of sprinter Alex Teague, and Matt Plowman in the 3,200 relay and open 1,600.
Kennedy, of course, hopes Friday and Saturday play out better than his assistant's work indicates.
"Right now we seem to be seeded like we take fourth," Kennedy said. "However, this is where things get interesting - that's assuming Ty Moss takes third in the 800, that's assuming Zac Espinosa will take seventh in the 400.
"Who knows? We have a lot of pieces left to play out," he said. "We did not necessarily do everything to get the best seeds possible. We tried to get the most qualifiers down. But many schools did the same thing."
As prospective top dog, Edwardsville has possible points spread out across all events. The Tigers' 400-meter relay is seeded first, as is A.J. Epenesa in discus. Lakes has the speedy Corey Hertz, while Evanston's numbers come mainly from three relays seeded no less than fourth.
Right behind Neuqua Valley, defending 200 and 400 champion Khamari Montgomery of Plainfield Central is the top seed in those events and second in the 100.
Who's to say, though, that Neuqua athletes like triple jumper Kimani Mobley, discus thrower Tom Cwiok or "miler" Dan Weiss won't upend the seeds and add points along with returning all-staters Moss, Espinosa and distance-doubler Connor Horn?
"If they do something, that would be a massive windfall for us," Kennedy said.
Or in Lake Park's case, Mike Prestigiacomo wins discus, finishes 1-2 with teammate Dylan Scheirich in shot put, Gio Basso goes 45 feet in triple jump, Antonio Shenault defends his 110-meter hurdle title and Ethan Koval goes 15 feet in pole vault?
Crazy things happen in Charleston, much crazier than Janota's meet handicapping. It all comes down to one truth.
"You have to do it on that day," Kennedy said.