Rozner: Why the Blackhawks will beat the Ducks in 7 games

Which team is going to show up?

That's one theme the Blackhawks and Ducks have in common, wondering which version of their squad will appear most regularly during the Western Conference finals.

You know the Hawks' story well. When they commit to playing team defense and stay patient waiting for scoring opportunities, they are nearly unbeatable - assuming decent goaltending.

The Ducks swept a good Winnipeg team, one many thought could go far in the postseason, but they didn't play as well against Calgary because they didn't have to. Turning it off and back on is never as easy as it looks from the outside, but so far it's working for the Ducks.

So here's a look at the matchup between two very good teams trying to reach the Stanley Cup Final:

Forward lines

In terms of high-end talent, the Hawks are deeper with Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp spread through three lines, giving them balance with all that skill. That doesn't even include Brandon Saad and Teuvo Teravainen, who may someday be included in that group, or replacing some in that category.

The Ducks sport Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and No. 2 center Ryan Kesler, with Perry and Getzlaf on the top line with Patrick Maroon, giving them about 700 pounds of mean, reminiscent of when Getzlaf, Perry and Dustin Penner formed a monster line on the 2007 Cup-winning team.

While the Hawks have more elite talent, the Ducks are deeper through four lines and players like Jakob Silfverberg, Andrew Cogliano, Matt Beleskey and Maroon are more than capable of having huge games and big series. Speedster Emerson Etem is a wild card and constant threat - when he can manage to keep himself in the lineup.

Anaheim is not as fast up front but they are much more physical and in a long series that's going to take a toll on the Hawks.

If the Kesler line, with Silfverberg and Beleskey, gets the Toews line, who sits on Kane? That might determine the winner here.

Defense

The Hawks' top four of Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya is the best in the game right now, but the Ducks are deeper and not afraid to play any of their three pairs against anything the Hawks throw out there.

Joel Quenneville doesn't have much choice at this point but to roll the dice and play his top four heavy minutes, knowing the summer is not far off and they can get some rest soon enough.

If it's a long series, however, the big minutes will add up, as will the big hits. Anaheim's big forwards will not pass up a chance to pound on the Hawks' defense and every one of those hits will have an effect as the games drag on.

The Ducks' defense is not always as active as the Hawks' defense, but they are certainly capable. The entire group will jump into the play, save Clayton Stoner, and players like Sami Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm can move the puck.

Goaltending

These teams are evenly matched and the series - like so many - is likely to come down to goaltending.

Corey Crawford has the history. He's a Stanley Cup-winning goaltender and was the Hawks' best player in 2013 when they won it all.

If that Crawford shows up, the Hawks will win the series, but betting that he has his confidence back based on two good games against Minnesota is a risky proposition.

Frederik Andersen has been consistent and among the best postseason goalies thus far, but the 25-year-old might not even be the best goalie on his team. At 21, John Gibson has flashed true brilliance, but injuries and illness derailed his season. Gibson beat the Hawks 1-0 at the UC in October.

But this is more about Crawford than the Ducks. If Crawford is back to being Crawford, the Hawks will be hard to beat.

Coaching

This one is not close and it is the one area that one team has a huge advantage.

Quenneville is headed for the Hall of Fame as soon as he retires as one of the greatest of all time. His attention to detail is crucial and his ability to push buttons at just the right time is superb.

On the other side is Bruce Boudreau, who is in the conference finals for the first time after so many previous playoff failures with so many very talented teams.

Prior to the Ducks going 8-1 this playoff season, Boudreau owned a 27-30 postseason record, his terrific regular-season teams frequently getting upset in the playoffs.

If it gets to a Game 7, Boudreau has a 1-5 record.

Intangibles

Since 2010, the Hawks have advanced to the Cup Final in two of three opportunities after reaching the final four, losing only on a Game 7 OT bounce against L.A. last season. When they can taste it, they tend to turn it on, winning in four games in 2010 and five games in 2013. The Hawks have the pedigree and piles of rings to stare at when times are tough.

The Ducks have outscored opponents 16-3 in the third period through the first two series. They have come from behind to win six times in eight victories.

Prediction

There's every reason to think this series will be a long one, which is bad for the Hawks' defense, but good for the Hawks if they can get Boudreau overthinking and making mistakes.

Tough series, but the call here is Hawks in seven.

brozner@dailyherald.com

Listen to Barry Rozner from 9 a.m. to noon Sundays on the Score's “Hit and Run” show at WSCR 670-AM.