These U.S. industries may see wage growth as talent pool shrinks

In an economy where wage growth has been virtually stagnant for almost six years, everyone is scanning the skies for the first sign of a pickup. Tuesday's Labor Department report on job openings and labor market turnover may offer some clues.

To gauge the health of the labor market, economists often look at the number of unemployed people (i.e.: those in the labor force who don't have a job and are looking for one) who are available for every job opening. A higher ratio denotes a labor market that's got a lot of slack in it. A lower ratio means the job market is getting tighter, which may prompt employers to raise wages in an attempt to attract workers.

Nationwide, this figure has been improving. There were 1.86 people competing for every job opening in February, using data that's not adjusted for seasonal variations. That compares with 2.76 people in the year before.

A Bloomberg analysis compared the six industries for which both industry-level openings and unemployment data are available. Our question: which sectors are strapped for talent?

The education and health services industry is seeing the tightest labor market, with just 0.9 unemployed people available per job vacancy, according to Labor Department data not seasonally adjusted. That's followed by professional and business services, with a ratio of 0.99, and leisure and hospitality, with 1.56 people vying for every opening.

The rising number of vacancies have been a big part of this story, with the number of job openings increasing to the highest level in February since January 2001. More postings "could lead to higher earnings, and there have been a number of reportsover the past few weeks of companies either raising, or planning to raise, wages to attract workers," Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan Securities Inc. in New York, wrote in a note to clients.

Industries where the job pool has more slack than the overall labor market include construction, where 5.81 unemployed people are available for every vacancy. The ratios in retail and manufacturing, while still above the national level, are about half that.

Even though some sectors are seeing a stronger case for wage increases, don't expect that to push Federal Reserve policymakers into a hasty rate increase, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York.

"Certain industries are going to have more evidence of rising labor costs than others, but the Fed needs to look at it in aggregate," said LaVorgna, who predicts the central bank's first rate increase since 2006 will come in September. With a report last week showing the weakest growth in employment since December 2013, "the data are ambiguous," he said. "The Fed is going to need clear evidence that employment costs are accelerating."