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'Boyhood' or 'Birdman'? Predicting best picture Oscar gives Dann 'Whiplash'

Let's start with Oscar's slam-dunks, shall we?

Five-time nominee Julianne Moore will win the best actress Academy Award Sunday for her portrait of a university professor suffering from early onset Alzheimer's disease in the otherwise unnotable domestic drama "Still Alice."

Patricia Arquette will win the best supporting actress Oscar for her role as a struggling single mother in Richard Linklater's bold, 12-year experiment "Boyhood."

The great character actor J.K. Simmons will take home the best supporting actor Oscar for his powerful performance as an unstable jazz band conductor in Damien Chazelle's "Whiplash." (Simmons holds a degree in conducting and composition. Good call on casting him.)

Last year's cinematography Oscar winner Emmanuel ("Gravity") Lubezki will be a back-to-back recipient of the statuette for his daring work in Alejandro G. Inarritu's "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)" photographed in what appears to be a single, seamless, uninterrupted two-hour shot.

Wes Anderson's stylishly comic "The Grand Budapest Hotel" will easily nab the Oscar for best production design with its colorful, whimsical re-creation of a lush mountain resort (actually an empty German department store repurposed as a film set).

With Steve James' excellent "Life Itself" out of the running, Laura Poitras' politically and historically important "Citizenfour" should receive the best documentary Oscar.

"Glory," from "Selma," will win the best song Oscar for two reasons: 1) It presents a more "prestige" image than the subversively comical attack on clichés "Everything is Awesome." 2) Guilt-stricken voters, embarrassed that they gave the Martin Luther King Jr. bio-drama only two nominations, will award it best song since it has little chance of winning best picture.

The editing Oscar will go to "Boyhood" to recognize the challenge of organizing and connecting 12 years' worth of highly improvised footage to create character arcs and narrative drives matching director/writer Linklater's vision.

Other Oscar categories appear to be locked in clash-of-the-titans duels:

Which will Oscar voters support in the Foreign language category? Poland's visually stunning, poetic "Ida" or Russia's politically courageous "Leviathan"? (Go for the Russians, I say.)

Will the sound mixing Oscar go to "Whiplash" or "American Sniper"? (Because "American Sniper" will win the best sound editing Oscar, I'm going with the deserving "Whiplash" for this one.)

The best visual effects category has a major grudge match going on between "Interstellar" (which attempted to avoid CGI whenever possible) and "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" (which took CGI to even greater quality and impact). By a kilobyte, give it to "Interstellar."

Now we come to the three biggest cage fights of the 87th Academy Awards: picture, director and actor.

Actor first.

For his fiercely vanity-challenged performance as a washed up superhero actor, Michael Keaton has won the Golden Globe, Chicago Film Critics Award, Critics Choice Award, plus others, and many odds-makers give him the edge to win the statuette.

But Keaton lost the key Screen Actors Guild award plus the British Academy Award to "Theory of Everything" star Eddie Redmayne, whose physically honed and empathetic performance as ALS survivor Stephen Hawking will triumph.

History says so.

From 1988 to 1997, eight of the best actor winners played characters with mental disorders, physical disabilities or various terrible diseases. (This works out nicely for nominee Julianne Moore, too.)

Redmayne's character represents bigger challenges - both physically and emotionally - than Keaton's character. Oscar voters will recognize and reward that. (Of course, the rapidly rising star Bradley Cooper could be the dark horse spoiler from "American Sniper.")

For best picture, "Boyhood" wins if we go by the conventional wisdom that "You can't win without an editing nomination!"

"Ordinary People" last did that way back in 1981. I offer two reasons why "Birdman" did not receive an editing nomination. 1) Voters didn't consider connecting lengthy shots together very difficult. 2) Voters thought "Birdman" would be a shoo-in and therefore used their votes to support other favorite films.

So, "Birdman" failed to get the important editing nomination. But we can't write it off yet because it earned the top prizes at the SAG, DGA and PGA awards, all indicators of Oscar success.

Yet, "Boyhood" screams artistic achievement, vision and prestige, the very elements that Academy voters want their awards to reflect and promote.

So let's ask the obvious question: Will Academy members split their votes?

If "Boyhood" wins best picture and Inarritu wins best director, Academy voters can recognize both works - "Boyhood" for its visionary achievement, "Birdman" for its far more complex requirements in direction.

That would be the fair thing to do here, and the Academy has a few precedents for this, the most recent being two years ago when "Argo" took best picture and Ang Lee took the director's Oscar for "The Life of Pi."

So there you have it: "Birdman" for director, "Boyhood" for picture.

In a perfect world, of course, my favorite film "Whiplash" would win picture, supporting actor, sound, editing and adapted screenplay.

But in the words of Wayne and Garth: No way!

<h3 class="briefHead">Other predictions:</h3>

<span class="x BTO fact box text bold">Adapted screenplay:</span> "The Imitation Game"

<span class="x BTO fact box text bold">Original screenplay:</span> "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)"

<span class="x BTO fact box text bold">Animated feature:</span> "How to Train Your Dragon 2"

<span class="x BTO fact box text bold">Original score:</span> "The Theory of Everything"

<span class="x BTO fact box text bold">Costume design:</span> "The Grand Budapest Hotel"

<span class="x BTO fact box text bold">Documentary short subject:</span> "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1"

<span class="x BTO fact box text bold">Makeup and hairstyling:</span> "The Grand Budapest Hotel"

<span class="x BTO fact box text bold">Animated short film:</span> "Feast"

<span class="x BTO fact box text bold">Live action short film:</span> "The Phone Call"

Both Michael Keaton, left, and his film, “Birdman,” are locked in tight Oscar races.
In a fierce battle for the Best Actor Academy Award, Eddie Redmayne should prevail as Britain's theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking in “The Theory of Everything.”
The easiest Oscar category to predict is best actress, which Julianne Moore will handily win as an Alzheimer's patient in “Still Alice.”
J.K. Simmons should be a slam-dunk to win the best supporting actor Oscar for his fine work as a sadistic jazz band conductor in “Whiplash.”
Patricia Arquette's performance as single parent Olivia should earn her the best supporting actress Oscar in Richard Linklater's “Boyhood,” which could also be named best picture.
Both Michael Keaton and his film, “Birdman,” are locked in tight Oscar races.

The 87th Academy Awards

TV, movie and Broadway star Neil Patrick Harris, who met an untimely fate on a date with Oscar nominee Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl,” will host the 87th Academy Awards, beginning with red carpet ceremonies at 6 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 22, on ABC.

Last year's Oscar broadcast turned out to be the most-watched program in the event's last 10 years with more than 45 million viewers. (Remember host Ellen Degeneres' “selfie” that became the most retweeted photo of all time with 32.8 million views?)

You can keep up with my Oscar tweets at @DannGireDHFilm or use other social media:

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