Pyke: More airline charges, gas tax hike top 2015 transit predictions

“Difficult to see ... always in motion is the future.” — Master Yoda, “The Empire Strikes Back”

Yoda wasn't kidding, and his words rang particularly true in 2014 with CTA train cars flying off the tracks, sabotage at an FAA center in Aurora and a polar vortex that iced commuters.

Fortunately, three Jedi with insight into planes, trains and automobiles have consented to enlighten us with predictions for 2015.

DePaul University transportation professor Joseph Schwieterman is first out of the box with an aviation forecast sure to irritate everyone.

“More major airlines will begin to charge extra for such things we once took for granted, such as aisle seats and the ability to sit near the front of the plane for easy exit,” said Schwieterman, Chaddick Institute for Metropolitan Development director.

On a positive note for supporters of opening up O'Hare International Airport's back yard to the DuPage suburbs, Schwieterman thinks that “the push to build the western terminal at O'Hare International Airport will gain much momentum due to both rising traffic and additional political support.”

Speaking of politics, UIC's Urban Transportation Center Executive Director Steve Schlickman projects Congress not only will fail to find a long-term fix for the nearly bankrupt Highway Trust Fund, but lawmakers also will balk at a long-term transportation bill.

That “leaves the nation's transportation in terrible shape — an embarrassment when compared to China's modern transportation network,” said Schlickman, former Regional Transportation Authority executive director.

Schlickman takes a leap of faith by anticipating that under the leadership of Gov.-elect Bruce Rauner, the General Assembly will enact the first multiyear, multi-billion-dollar plan for roads, transit and infrastructure since Gov. Jim Thompson.

How to pay for it? The Metropolitan Planning Council's Peter Skosey thinks an increase in the state's motor fuel tax, currently at 19 cents a gallon, is possible.

Raising the gas tax is a heavy political lift but the timing is right with lower prices.

“The average Illinois resident pays about $8.25 a month (in state gas taxes),” Skosey said. “Would the average Illinois resident be willing to pay an additional $8.25 a month for better roads, bridges and transit?”

Another option is broadening the state sales tax to services, which “could net the RTA an additional $100 million to $150 million per year,” Skosey said.

Underfunded projects in 2015 include: Chicago Union Station improvements, modernization of the CTA's Red Line from Belmont to Howard stops and the Purple Line to Wilmette, and the Route 53 extension into Lake County, Skosey notes.

I asked the experts for the underreported transportation stories of 2014.

Schlickman referenced the “turnaround at the RTA with the change in management to Leanne Redden as the new executive director. One staffer told me that the internal change was 180 degrees for the better,” he said.

Schlickman also went out on a limb by prognosticating a 2015 comeback for the Central Area Circulator Project, “which died a political death in 1995,” he notes. The idea of a trolley line linking train stations in the west Loop with jobs and attractions downtown faltered due to local opposition and a lack of funding.

But the Circulator will return as the “Connector,” a project being championed by the Central Area Committee, Schlickman said. It “would create a high-capacity transit line from Navy Pier along the north riverbank of the Chicago River to the Canal/Clinton corridor and (head) south, picking up the west side Metra terminals and then wind southeast through the South Loop to the Museum Campus, Soldier Field and McCormick Place.”

Bonus predictions!

• One down side of low gas prices is that the trend will end the Chicago Transit Authority's “winning streak of sharp ridership gains on the 'L,'” DePaul's Schwieterman expects.

• I can't forecast the outcome, but you can expect big decisions in 2015 on whether the Illinois tollway adopts the Route 53 expansion project and whether Metra decides to increase fares again.

• Also expected in 2015: critical findings from the National Transportation Safety Board on the CTA Blue Line crash at the O'Hare stop in March where a train bounced onto an escalator, and noise from jets playing a role in the Chicago mayoral election fight between incumbent Rahm Emanuel and challengers like Alderman Bob Fioretti.

Got a transportation prediction for 2015?

Did we miss anything? Get it wrong?

Drop me an email at mpyke@dailyherald.com.

Upcoming

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Pricey projects

Got a billion to spare? Or maybe $163 billion? That's what the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials estimates it will take to fix the nation's geriatric highways, bridges and transit systems. Good thing, it's just a mere $20 billion to cover the infrastructure backlog in the metro region, the Regional Transportation Authority projects.