Book it: Bold NFC predictions for 2015
No messing around — let's get right to my bold predictions for the NFC for 2015.
(If you missed the AFC version, check out last week's column).
• Matt Forte will not finish in the top 8 in fantasy points among running backs. Some of you might not call that bold, just stupid and crazy. But the way I see it, Forte is going to be 30 next season and he's averaged 323 touches over his seven years in the league (he's on pace for 369 this season, close to a career high). My gut says he gets injured at some point and misses four or more games. Those of you in PPR leagues probably can't pass him up, but everybody else should be extremely wary.
• Aaron Rodgers compiles his first 5,000-yard, 50-TD season. The Packers' gunslinger has never looked better and I expect a career year out of him in 2015.
• Lions RB Joique Bell finally puts it all together and amasses 1,400 yards from scrimmage and 10 TDs.
• Vikings RB Jerick McKinnon is an every-week fantasy RB2. He catches 40-50 passes, runs for 1,100 yards and scores 6-8 TDs.
• DeMarco Murray is a bust. Or at least a severe disappointment. Look, it's difficult to ignore history, which shows you that anytime a running back touches the ball as often as he has in one season, it's nearly impossible to duplicate the results. Murray is on pace for 394 carries (which would be the seventh-most of all-time) and an astronomical 459 total touches. Check out the production the next season for the players with the all-time most rushing attempts in one season:
Larry Johnson (416 carries in 2006 ... 745 YFS, 4 TDs in 2007).
Jamal Anderson (410 carries in 1998 ... played two games in 1999).
James Wilder (407 carries in 1984 ...1,641 YFS, 10 TDs in 1985).
Eric Dickerson (404 carries in 1986 ... 1,459 YFS, 6 TDs in 1987).
Eddie George (403 carries in 2000 ... 1,218 YFS, 5 TDs in 2001).
Only Wilder produced what I'd call RB1-type numbers the next season and only Dickerson had decent seasons 2-plus years later. Murray will not give you the value you seek in 2015.
• Eagles RB LeSean McCoy bounces back with 1,800 YFS and 12 TDs.
• Eli Manning, thanks to Odell Beckham Jr's emergence and the return of Victor Cruz, is a top-10 fantasy QB for the first time since 2011.
• Skins TE Jordan Reed catches 70 passes for 750 yards and 7 TDs.
• Falcons WR Julio Jones makes a run at Calvin Johnson's all-time, single-season receiving record of 1,964 yards set in 2012.
• Drew Brees' steady decline continues. The soon-to-be 36-year-old QB doesn't look like his old self these days. My guess is he still has a decent season but is overdrafted based on his reputation. He'll finish with under 4,500 passing yards for the first time since 2009 and be held under 34 TD passes.
• Kelvin Benjamin leads the league with 13 TD catches.
• The starting Bucs QB — if he can play 16 games — throws 26-plus TD passes.
• Tre Mason is one of the top three steals of the draft. Playing on a Rams team with a suffocating defense, Mason will be what Zac Stacy was supposed to be this season — a true workhorse who runs for 1,500 yards and scores 12-15 TDs.
• Unless Seattle drafts Marshawn Lynch's replacement, Robert Turbin takes over and is a top-10 fantasy RB.
• John Brown, Arizona's third wideout, is a great risk / reward play all year as he grabs 60 balls for 900 yards and scores four or more times from 40-plus yards out.
• The Niners remember that Vernon Davis is on their team and actually throw him the ball enough that the big, hulking tight end is again a force. Watch for 700-plus yards and 7-plus TDs.
Good bets
• Falcons QB Matt Ryan vs. Pittsburgh. This could change a bit if Julio Jones (hip) can't go. But even if Jones is out, Ryan (744 passing yards last two) should post decent-enough numbers.
• Eagles QB Mark Sanchez vs. Dallas. Sanchez and the Eagles will be itching to get back to being their high-flying selves after the Seahawks grounded them last week.
• Chargers QB Philip Rivers vs. Denver. There's only one way to keep up with the Broncos and that's to throw the ball. Rivers had 3 TD passes vs. Denver in Week 8. A similar performance is coming.
• Jets RB Chris Ivory at Tennessee. The Titans can't stop you. Or me. Or my 12-year-old son, for that matter.
• Saints RB Mark Ingram at the Bears. You have been watching this defense, right?
• Martavis Bryant WR at Atlanta. Boom or bust call here. If you can take the risk, Bryant (7 TDs last seven) could put you over the top.
• Saints WR Marques Colston at the Bears. He has 50 or more receiving yards in three of the last four and scored in two of those games. Now he gets the Bears? Giddy-up.
• Niners QB Colin Kaepernick and WRs Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin at Seattle. Teams better figure out how to run the ball on the Seahawks because the last four teams' QBs averaged 118.5 passing yards with 2 TDs and 4 INTs against them.
• Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill and WRs Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry at New England. The Patriots have throttled Calvin Johnson (3-58), Jordy Nelson (2-53-1) and Keenan Allen (2-3) the last three weeks. Word to the wise: Wallace and Landry don't come near the talent of those three, so it's safe to assume what's coming and it's not good.
• Chargers RB Ryan Mathews vs. Denver. Only the Lions have allowed fewer rushing yards per game than Denver. More than 8 fantasy points in this spot would be a win for Mathews owners.
• Bengals RBs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard at Cleveland. Bernard should have stayed away. Hill was OK three weeks ago, but they've been awful since.
Follow John on Twitter @johndietzdh.