Dietz: Chasing points can leave owners out of breath

Are you a fantasy football points chaser?

You know, they owner who snarfs up Jacksonville's Allen Hurns or Tampa Bay's Bobby Rainey or Philadelphia's Jordan Matthews after one big week only to see them completely disappear. So you drop them and grab Tennessee's Justin Hunter or Oakland's Andre Holmes.

And then they disappear ... and you wonder why you have such a splitting headache.

Well, consider this column your Excedrin remedy.

Now, don't get me wrong. Sometimes the knee-jerk reaction works as has been the case in one of my leagues with Justin Forsett, Pierre Garcon and Malcolm Floyd.

But as I peruse the transaction history in that league, the vast majority of "adds" have been totally worthless.

This "what have you done for me lately?" mentality runs amok in our society, so why should fantasy football be any different?

Check out the path of poor Kendall Wright in my regular league: He gets dropped on Oct. 2 after three so-so weeks, then gets picked up after a 6-catch, 47-yard, 2-TD game. Then, after a 1-catch, 6-yard dud he promptly gets dumped for the Raiders' Holmes. So of course, Wright proceeds to catch 6 passes for 68 yards and a TD last week while Holmes produces just 3 points.

That owner not only lost out on 9 points, but he also threw $4 down the toilet.

So where is Wright now? On my team, of course! With Jeremy Maclin as my only lock, he'll compete for playing time with Brian Quick, Larry Fitzgerald and James Jones (who I also added this week).

What we need to be doing at this point of the season in terms of free-agent pickups is one of two things:

• Have the foresight to identify players who should be ready to put up big numbers (Seattle's Doug Baldwin after Percy Harvin gets traded; the Giants' Odell Beckham Jr. after Victor Cruz goes down for the season).

• Or look for players who should provide a steady, if unspectacular stream of points going forward. And have the patience to hang onto them if they throw up one stinker!

In addition to Wright and Baldwin, I continue to like Oakland's Jones (30-363-3) and Cleveland's Andrew Hawkins (29-382-0) as WR3's for teams (like mine) who just need that consistent bump every week. One other name I'll add to that list is Minnesota's Greg Jennings, available in about two-thirds of leagues. He's given owners acceptable results (7-plus points) in four out of seven games and has an awfully inviting schedule moving forward.

RB help:

Many owners were likely clamoring to get their hands on Jacksonville's Denard Robinson after his 22-carry, 127-yard effort against Cleveland. But remember that he was facing the league's worst run defense, which should sound the alarm of possible ONE WEEK WONDER! If you grabbed him, I'd let him show you a bit more unless you're desperate.

In Buffalo, injuries to C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson mean Bryce Brown, Anthony Dixon and the recently signed Phillip Tanner will attempt to win the right to carry the load. I've always loved Brown, but he has fumbling issues and has a tough time picking up the tough yards. You'll have to be patient no matter what happens, though, because the Bills have the Jets this week (88.0 rush yards allowed per game) and then are on a bye. Three weeks after that, Jackson's expected to return so expecting Brown, Dixon or Tanner to save your season is pure fantasy.

Good bets

• Ravens QB Joe Flacco at Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed 107 points in the last three weeks.

• Bears QB Jay Cutler at New England. Ignore the fact the Pats have allowed the fewest passing yards per game (208.0) and have faith that a locker-room blowup will lead to a monster game from Cutler.

• Bills QB Kyle Orton at the Jets. He's not lighting the world on fire, but Orton (297 ypg, 5 TDs in three games) should be able to exploit a Jets D that's allowed 18 passing scores.

• Lions RB Joique Bell vs. Atlanta. Primary RBs have piled up 519 rushing yards and 7 TDs in the last four games vs. the Falcons.

• Dolphins RB Lamar Miller at Jacksonville. A fairly hot Miller (4 TDs last three) should run his TD streak to four straight games.

• Raiders RB Darren McFadden at Cleveland. OK, he's probably just a low-end RB2 or a high-end flex play, but McFadden is an intriguing option vs. the league's worst run defense.

• Vikings WR Greg Jennings at Tampa Bay. I think Jennings gets at least 70 yards and maybe scores.

• Rams WR Brian Quick at Kansas City. Don't give up on Quick (3 catches last two games). He had two tough matchups and will bounce back nicely in this one.

• Bills defense at the Jets. Buffalo has been a pleasant surprise with 24 sacks and 8 INTs thus far.

Bad bets

• Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. Indianapolis. Only the Lions and Ravens have allowed fewer passing TDs than the Colts' 8.

• Falcons QB Matt Ryan vs. Detroit. Drew Brees put up big numbers last week, but the Lions' defense is allowing 1.0 pass TDs per week.

• Bengals RB Giovani Bernard vs. Baltimore. Watch for the Ravens to take Bernard out and make the A.J. Green-less Bengals go to the air.

• Jets RB Chris Ivory vs. Buffalo. Zero. That's how many rushing TDs the Bills have allowed.

• Panthers WR Kelvin Benjamin vs. Seattle. Hey, rook: Say hello to Richard Sherman.

• Ravens WR Torrey Smith at Cincinnati. Smith has 4 TDs the last four games, but he's done that on just 12 total catches. I've got a nice parcel of land in Montana for sale if you think that continues much longer.

• Eagles defense at Arizona. Philly's been getting lucky with 5 D/ST. touchdowns in six games. Against the solid Cardinals, don't expect more than 5-6 points in standard leagues Sunday.

jdietz@dailyherald.com

Follow John on Twitter at johndietzdh