Using Week 1 clues to see the fantasy future

Whether it's your first day on the job or the first time meeting the parents of your girlfriend or boyfriend, first impressions are important.

Same goes for the first week of the NFL season. So let's get right to mine, shall we?

• Three teams - the Bears, Eagles and Chargers - lost extremely important parts of their offensive lines last week. As fantasy players we rarely pay attention to the big guys, but they are the oil that makes a finely-tuned offense run. San Diego will be without center Nick Hardwick for the rest of the season, a crushing blow seeing as he's been the team's best offensive lineman three years running. The Bears also lost their center - Roberto Garza - as well as guard Matt Slauson to ankle sprains. And the Eagles are also reeling as all-pro guard Evan Mathis has an MCL sprain and tackle Allen Barbre is done for the year. Barbre was backing up second-year tackle Lane Johnson, who is suspended for the first four games.

If these teams start overheating in the next week or two, adjust accordingly.

• The Falcons are back. After an injury-riddled 4-12 season in which only nine teams scored fewer points than Atlanta, I like this team to make the playoffs and finish in the top eight in points scored.

• Victor Cruz owners should be worried as Eli Manning and the Giants look completely lost.

• Pittsburgh's Markus Wheaton (unowned in 34 percent of cbssports.com leagues) needs to be on every roster. He's a viable long-term solution to potential underperformers like Cruz. Ben Roethlisberger trusts his second-year wideout and a big season is coming.

• If you are an RG3 owner, have patience. His opener was awful but in some respects encouraging as he completed 29 of 37 passes. The problem is he didn't take any shots downfield. Watch for that to change in a hurry as the schedule gets a lot easier the next three weeks.

• Carolina WR Kelvin Benjamin. Stud. Enough said. Play him every week.

• Not so good: Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden combined for a laughable 2.0-yard-per-carry average against the Jets. MJD actually had a long run of 12 yards, meaning his other 8 carries went for minus-1 yard. Somewhere, Marcus Allen must be thinking about a comeback.

• Real good: Niners RB Carlos Hyde. Explosive. Shifty. Superstar in waiting. It would not at all surprise me to see him score against the Bears this week. He's already a viable flex play.

• Four defenses that may not provide much fantasy support this season yet are owned in a majority of leagues are St. Louis (Chris Long is out 8-10 weeks), Pittsburgh, New England and Kansas City. Want a great option as a replacement? Grab San Diego, owned in just 10 percent of leagues. Check out their incredibly weak schedule and you'll see why the Chargers may just end up in the top 10 before it's all said and done.

• Four players who will surprise you all season: Knowshon Moreno, DeAndre Hopkins, Jake Locker and Geno Smith.

• Wait and see: Jags rookie WR Allen Hurns had quite a debut with 4 catches for 110 yards and 2 TDs. But remember - Hurns is the team's third WR when Cecil Shorts returns, which may be this week. My guess is this undrafted free agent doesn't average 40 yards or score more than four more times the rest of the way.

Good bets

• Jets QB Geno Smith at Green Bay. Bit of a crazy pick here, but Smith (23 of 28) was very solid at home against the Raiders and could easily be in the top 10 among QBs this week.

• Titans QB Jake Locker vs. Dallas. Now this pick isn't so nuts. Locker has a stable of wideouts that will be household names in fantasy circles very soon. Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright and Nate Washington present big problems for defenses, and they were impressive at Kansas City. Watch for Locker to flirt with a 300-yard, 3-TD game.

• Titans RB Shonn Greene vs. Dallas. Greene will score at least once and eclipse 100 yards against a defense that was just hit fairly hard by Frank Gore (16-66) and Carlos Hyde (7-50).

• Niners RB Frank Gore vs. Bears. Maybe Lance Briggs will actually hit the right gap Sunday night. Or maybe not.

• Dolphins RB Knowshon Moreno at Buffalo. This guy may end up being the steal of every fantasy draft.

• Bucs WR Vincent Jackson vs. St. Louis. When a stud like Jackson is held to 4 catches for 36 yards, an 8-catch, 120-yard, 1-TD game has a tendency to follow.

• Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald at N.Y. Giants. Last year, Fitzgerald (1 catch, 22 yards last week) was held to 45 yards or less five times. He followed those up with double-digit fantasy points four times.

• Giants TE Larry Donnell vs. Arizona. Jordan Cameron owners, take note: In an otherwise putrid performance by New York, Donnell (5-56-1 on 8 targets) was a bright spot Monday night. Facing the team every TE abuses, watch for another solid outing.

Bad bets

• Bears QB Jay Cutler at San Francisco. Nice fantasy start by Cutler, who ranks seventh among QBs after a 349-yard, 2-TD, 2-INT opener. This is a time to bench him, however, as the Bears are going to be without two starting offensive linemen plus receiver Alshon Jeffery and maybe even Brandon Marshall.

• Seahawks QB Russell Wilson at San Diego. You have to pick and choose your spots with Wilson, who averaged just 215 yards with 12 TDs in eight road games last season. The Chargers' defense looked very good Monday night and will be amped up for this one.

• Lions RB Reggie Bush at Carolina. While Knowshon Moreno may have been the steal of our drafts, I'm beginning to wonder if Bush won't be a classic bust. Nine carries for 15 yards? Out-touched by Joique Bell 16-15? Time to get nervous.

• Chargers RB Ryan Mathews vs. Seattle. Any good bet RB above is a much better play than Mathews.

• Giants WR Victor Cruz vs. Arizona. Chargers QB Philip Rivers managed just 10 completions for 107 yards to wide receivers last week. Eli Manning is in for a long day and finding Cruz will be a tough task.

• Saints WR Brandin Cooks at Cleveland. This kid is the real deal and a WR3 from here on out.

• Bears WR Brandon Marshall at San Francisco. Even if Marshall plays, he's banged up. The Bears will look to establish the run and that Niners D is solid despite missing two key players.

jdietz@dailyherald.com