Bears can win, but Packers poised to dominate for years
This is still the NFL, where on any given Sunday, Monday, Thursday or Saturday, even the Chiefs can defeat the Chargers.
Or the Bears can beat the Packers.
The line between average and good is razor thin — and it's usually a thin offensive line that is the difference between good and bad.
So, yes, the simple conclusion is the Bears can compete with the Packers and win a game Sunday, but the reason it feels less likely than last year is that the two teams appear headed in opposite directions.
And we could be entering an era of domination for Green Bay that may last several years, notwithstanding Sunday's result.
At 27, Aaron Rodgers is considered among the top two or three quarterbacks in the NFL and — lest we forget — he led Green Bay to a Super Bowl seven months ago.
At the same time, the Packers have the third-youngest roster in the NFL behind only Tampa and Seattle, with 12 first-year players. They have 25 players on the roster who are rookies or just beginning their second year — the Bears have 16 — and only six Packers are 30 years old.
The Bears, by contrast, have six starters on defense who are 30 or older, and on offense Jay Cutler is 28. But with more experience and games started, he's not nearly as polished as Rodgers, and he has proven nothing yet about what type of quarterback he's going to be.
Of course, Cutler is only partially to blame. Since coming to Chicago he has taken a beating behind a dreadful offensive line and has been given little in the form of weapons, especially compared to what Rodgers has to work with in Green Bay.
Cutler would seem to have all the physical tools, but there's no proof that he's going to put it all together — especially here in Chicago.
There's also the question of identity, which is clear in Green Bay.
Rodgers and company are going to light you up with their offense, and on defense they're going to punish with an array of blitzes and looks that can strike fear into opposing quarterbacks.
The Bears, on the other hand, play the Cover-2. It's effective when the Bears are healthy, fast and playing from ahead, but it's seen as boring by a fan base that wants its defense to attack and destroy.
Offensively, good luck figuring out what the Bears are supposed to be and when they're supposed to be it.
They are running a Mike Martz system without the personnel to do it, pretending to be the Greatest Show on Mud, when in reality they have neither the offensive line to protect Cutler nor the receivers to understand the offense and make the plays.
What the Bears need to do is run the football, keep Cutler off his back, and hope their defense can create the turnovers necessary to get the lead and protect it.
But none of that sounds very exciting to Martz.
So GM Jerry Angelo and head coach Lovie Smith not only turned the offense over to Martz, but they also made moves in the off-season designed to help Martz with his offense.
And here they are in the second year of an offense that needs Hall of Famers to make it work and appear no further along than they were a year ago.
Even worse, they've tied themselves to Martz and might be reluctant to make a change even if this season goes bad, knowing Cutler has had new offensive coordinators nearly every season of his career.
The future of the offense is unclear at best and dangerous at worst.
On the other side of the field, the Super Bowl champs lost 15 players to injured reserve last season, including six starters, and they had the depth to overcome those injuries.
Green Bay GM Ted Thompson discovers players — including undrafted free agents — to fit their systems offensively and defensively, while head coach Mike McCarthy and his staff develop players and have them ready to plug in.
Angelo and Smith inspire no such confidence when it comes to securing the talent and getting it ready to play.
The bottom line is that even if the Bears win this match — and it's always within the realm — both teams will be 2-1 and it will still feel like they're going in opposite directions.
The NFL is as much about health as anything else, and all it takes is one injury to ruin a season and condemn a franchise.
But all things being equal, there's something big brewing in Wisconsin.
And that doesn't usually bode well for football in Chicago.
brozner@dailyherald.com
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