Airbus sees demand rising to 27,800 jetliners over next 20 years
Airbus SAS, the largest maker of commercial aircraft, predicted airlines will buy 27,800 planes valued at $3.5 trillion over the next 20 years, buoyed by Asian economic growth and increased demand for single-aisle models.
The forecast is 7.5 percent higher than the 25,850 jet- requirement anticipated by Toulouse, France-based Airbus in December 2010. The revised total compares with competitor Chicago-based Boeing Co.'s July forecast for 30,900 planes worth $3.6 billion.
Airbus raised its single-aisle estimate, predicting almost 19,200 planes worth $1.4 trillion will be needed, with jets such as its A320 and Boeing's 737, together with re-engined versions, will account for 40 percent by value or 69 percent by units. The company expects demand for 6,900 widebody planes and 1,781 so- called very large aircraft, such as the A380 superjumbo.
“The aviation sector is expected to remain resilient to cyclical economic conditions, as in the past,” Airbus said in a statement, adding that orders will be spurred by growth in emerging markets, greater urbanization, increasing wealth, the replacement of older planes and expansion of discount carriers.
Higher fuel prices are aiding immediate demand as carriers switch to more-efficient models. Since offering to re-engine the A320 last December, Airbus has garnered orders and commitments for more than 1,200 planes, while Boeing has won almost 500 since it agreed to do likewise with the 737 last month.
Airbus, a unit of European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co., predicts that passenger traffic will grow by 4.8 percent a year on average over the next two decades, with the global passenger fleet more than doubling to 31,500 planes.
The Asia-Pacific region will account for 34 percent of new aircraft, led by carriers in China and India, the manufacturer predicted, with Europe and North America each taking 22 percent.
The latest prediction for single-aisle jets is a 7.4 percent increase on the prior estimate. For widebody planes, it's an 11 percent rise, and for very large aircraft, a move to an estimated 1,781 from 1,738.
Airbus's very large aircraft forecast represents an increase of 43 planes, with 45 percent of the total ordered operating in the Asia-Pacific. Chicago-based Boeing sees less need for very large planes.
Airbus's 20-year forecast for 27,800 aircraft includes 900 new-build freighters. Two thirds of the world's cargo planes are older passenger models that have been converted.