Things not likely to go Bears' way again

The Bears' schedule has been lurking for months, waiting to be picked and picked at, torturing with its brutal start, and tempting with it's seemingly easy second half.

It dares you to go week by week, begs you to forecast a final record.

But trying to predict an NFL season for about 25 teams these days is akin to managing your 401(k). It's no easier than qualifying the speed bias at Saratoga or guessing who will be blamed next for the Canucks' choke or Vancouver's riots.

It's darn near impossible.

Confusing matters for the locals is all the talk of Matt Forte needing a new contract, Lance Briggs wanting out of his old one and Roy Williams' preseason performance.

But that's all a distraction from what will truly determine whether the Bears can post back-to-back playoff seasons for the first time since 2006.

It begins and ends with Jay Cutler, who's in the best shape of his football career and has a much better grasp of the Mike Martz offense than he did a year ago.

If he can stay off his back and his receivers are where they're supposed to be when they're supposed to be there, Cutler could conceivably have his best year as a Bear.

But there's no evidence to suggest those areas will show great improvement.

A couple of quarters of preseason football in Games 2 and 3 have many believing the offensive line is ready to roll and will deliver multiple Pro Bowlers.

Seems a bit absurd, but one does have the right to hope.

As for the receivers, Cutler has the most confidence in Earl Bennett, and it says something about the group that Dane Sanzenbacher probably will soon be Cutler's second choice.

Of great importance will be how Lovie Smith coaches his offensive coordinator, who was given more authority as the Bears drafted and signed players Martz desired, indicating a huge Martz influence.

If this is the case once the real games begin, the Bears are sunk.

In large part because of the Mike Tice influence, Smith got to Martz in the bye week a year ago and finally played head coach.

Smith informed his top offensive assistant that this isn't the Greatest Show on Mud, and that his QB would not survive long enough to win a playoff game unless Martz was willing to occasionally hand the ball to a running back and shorten Cutler's drops.

But Martz is now emboldened and there is a palpable fear that Mr. Hyde will rear his ugly head in any game the Bears trail.

On defense, there are age concerns around the field, with Brian Urlacher (33), Anthony Adams (31), Julius Peppers (31), Lance Briggs (31 in November), Israel Idonije (31 in November), Charles Tillman (30) and Chris Harris (29) pushing the NFL envelope.

The secondary is shaky and the Bears are thin at linebacker, while the usually brilliant special teams have a new punter and looked rusty in the preseason.

But we're assuming that Cutler and Forte will be good, the defensive line terrific, the special teams special and that Devin Hester will win a couple of games with returns and field position.

Based on that, the schedule offers the Bears a 10-6 season.

But their good fortune in 2010 with injuries, bounces and Calvin Johnsons suggests that everything will not go their way again.

The Packers, even with a hangover, don't figure to lose six starters and a third of their roster to injured reserve again.

The Lions at 2-7 a year ago probably were the best team in the division and could have easily been 7-2.

If Matthew Stafford can stay on the field — and granted it's a huge “if'' — Detroit could be a playoff team.

Add in the Bears' offensive line with so many unanswered questions and 2011 has 8-8 written all over it.

So is it 10-6 or 8-8? It's the NFL, where flipping a coin makes as much sense as any theory, but the decision here is to think they won't get to face third-string QBs several times again this season.

That sounds like an 8-8 season.

There, it's done, so we can shred that coffee-stained, months-old piece of paper with its taunting schedule and vexing puzzle, knowing preseason predictions have a shelf life of merely days, if not hours.

Glad that's out of the way for another 12 months.

brozner@dailyherald.com

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