By the numbers: Bears vs. Packers
Here's a look at some intriguing numbers behind some questions about the Bears-Packers game:
How much do special teams matter?
Fabled Dallas Morning News writer Rick Gosselin invented the special teams rankings that have become the accepted barometer around the NFL. Gosselin ranks the teams from 1 to 32 in 22 special teams categories, but doesn't release his rankings until after the Super Bowl.
Because the Bears care so much about their special teams units, they track Gosselin's categories so they know where they stand on a week-to-week basis. They head into today's NFC Championship game ranked fourth, while Green Bay ranks 29th.
Sounds promising, right? Not so fast.
Guess where the New Orleans Saints, the winners of Super Bowl XLIV, finished in last year's Gosselin rankings?
That's right, 29th. Or XXIX, if you prefer.
Dallas finished fourth in last year's rankings. The Cowboys went 11-5 to win their division, just like the Bears did this season.
The Cowboys won their first playoff game, just like the Bears.
The Cowboys lost their second playoff game.
What will the Bears do?
So the Bears have the better running game, eh?
Matt Forte is enjoying a terrific season. And Jay Cutler does a heck of a job scrambling for yards. Meanwhile, Green Bay star running back Ryan Grant was lost for the year after wrecking his ankle in Week 1 and the Packers took a long time to replace him.
Those are the perceptions. So what's the truth?
The Bears rushed the ball 414 times for 1,616 yards during the regular season. The Packers rushed 421 times for 1,606 yards. They ranked 22nd and 24th, respectively, among the 32 NFL teams in rushing yards per game.
Is it the yards or the attempts?
Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy claimed Wednesday, as he has all year, that his team's rushing yards don't matter as much as the number of rushes. The Packers posted 32 carries at Philadelphia two weeks ago and 31 at Atlanta last week, so McCarthy put this week's magic number at 30 carries.
“The most important statistic in the running game, as I state in here weekly, is attempts,” McCarthy said. “I think we were 31 attempts last week. And if we can run the ball more than 30 times this week, I think we'll be very successful.”
The Packers believe that's enough carries to condition the Bears into expecting the run — thus making their play-action stuff that much more effective. In general, do 30 carries represent some sort of magic number for these teams?
Green Bay owns a 7-1 record this year when it runs the ball at least 30 times. The only loss? With Aaron Rodgers out due to a concussion, the Packers ran a season-high 38 times in a 31-27 loss at New England.
The Bears own a 7-0 record when they run the ball at least 30 times and have gone 10-0 when they rush more than 20 times. However, their running game needs to be broken into pre-bye week and post-bye numbers.
In the six games before the bye when Jay Cutler played, the Bears averaged just 19 carries. In the 10 games since the bye, when Lovie Smith asked for Matt Forte to become a bigger part of things, the Bears have averaged 30.3 carries.
Root with your pocketbook or your heart?
According to Capital IQ, the stock market has a history of faring much better after Green Bay plays in the Super Bowl as opposed to the Bears.
In years when the Packers reach the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 posts an average yearly return of 23 percent. In the two years when the Bears reached the Super Bowl, the same index showed an average return of 12.25 percent.
If you check out capitaliq.com, the site tells stock-minded football fans they should root for neither the Bears nor the Packers … but the Steelers if they want to maximize their portfolios. After Pittsburgh's six Super Bowl triumphs, the average S&P 500 return has been 26 percent.